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  • Third roll: 63S-53P-42

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 2 08:48:59 2022
    XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAd--b-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 4 09:09:13 2022
    XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAd--b-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    This problem is another good illustration of the value of making
    the bar-point anchor in the early game.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/18 eq:+0.190
    Player: 54.60% (G:12.86% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 45.40% (G:10.20% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.178..+0.202) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.093 (-0.097)
    Player: 52.75% (G:16.07% B:0.91%)
    Opponent: 47.25% (G:15.91% B:0.68%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.077..+0.110) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Dec 5 18:09:17 2022
    On 12/2/2022 8:48 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAd--b-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  X |   | O        O     X |
     | X           O    |   | O        O       |
     | X                |   | O                |  | X                |   | O                |  |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |  | O                |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X              O |
     | O     X     X    |   | X              O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 158  O: 159 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42


    Either five point is usually better than four or bar points; four and
    bar points tend to be about equal, depending on what else is going on.

    Here, making the four point unstacks the six point, so that inclines me
    toward doing that. Plus I'm biased in favor of offense over defense. So,
    I make the four point.

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