BTW, not a made up position, a real position from a real game today.


XGID=-CbCbbCBC-Aa-----c-bba----:1:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:1 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X O X O |
| O O | | O X X O X O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 192 O: 78 X-O: 1-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 11:02:04 AM UTC-5, ah...Clem wrote:

BTW, not a made up position, a real position from a real game today.

XGID=-CbCbbCBC-Aa-----c-bba----:1:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:1 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X O X O |
| O O | | O X X O X O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 192 O: 78 X-O: 1-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

This is not a '1-4-5' backgame.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/1/2022 11:01 AM, ah...Clem wrote:

BTW, not a made up position, a real position from a real game today.

XGID=-CbCbbCBC-Aa-----c-bba----:1:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:1 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X O X O |
| O O | | O X X O X O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 192 O: 78 X-O: 1-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I think you meant 2-4-5 note 1-4-5. At this score, the trailer barely
needs an excuse to recube. O needs 40% winning chances to take. I find
these positions hard to judge but RD/T would be my verdict.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/1/2022 4:39 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

This is not a '1-4-5' backgame.

Stick

Correct. I'm a programmer by trade so I'm usually off by one.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Match score is the big deciding factor here. At 4a 3a the trailer can
rewhip without being recubed and also cancel the negative effect of
gammon losses. As Tim correctly says, O's takepoint is about 40%.

Does O have 40% here?. It certainly seemed that way to me (I was
playing O and thought the point of the cube was to kill gammons) , but
XG thinks that O is a bit shy of that, and that X actually wins enough
gammons from here to make it TG.

Of course, as a practical matter, who passes this one as O? So it's a
very good practical cube against a human.

All the above assuming that XG actually understands this position, which
may be doubtful.

At a "normal" match score, it's not at all close to being a cube and a
huge blunder to pass. See variant below.



XGID=-CbCbbCBC-Aa-----c-bba----:1:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:5:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:1 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X O X O |
| O O | | O X X O X O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 192 O: 78 X-O: 1-2/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 62.69% (G:14.45% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.31% (G:24.03% B:1.59%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.85% (G:11.67% B:0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.15% (G:24.90% B:2.49%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.318, Double=+1.189

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.021
Redouble/Take: +1.189 (+0.167)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.021)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.4%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+1.010..+1.033)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.173..+1.205)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


//////////////////
//variant
/////////////////////

unlimited play, same position

XGID=-CbCbbCBC-Aa-----c-bba----:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X O X O |
| O O | | O X X O X O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 192 O: 78 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 62.01% (G:15.06% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.99% (G:22.66% B:0.62%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.163, Double=+0.331

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.416
Redouble/Take: +0.039 (-0.378)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.584)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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