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  • Third roll: 63S-32S-65

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 1 09:18:51 2022
    XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Dec 1 15:07:37 2022
    On 12/1/2022 9:18 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  O        O  X |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |  | X           O    |   | O                |  | X                |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O     X     X    |   | X     O        O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 158  O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    I's early so grabbing a permanent asset like the bar point is thematic.
    But it's also thematic to knock your opponent off the four point in the
    early game. And so is simply running the back checker to safety.

    Plus there's the double hit, which should always be a candidate play.

    So many options, and I'm not sure which is optimal. I'll hit loose on
    the four point and move the blot on the 18 to safety. Not sure
    .

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Dec 1 13:49:45 2022
    On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 9:18:53 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Usually I can at least guess what someone might see as Play B in most of your problems even if I label them Nexts! Here though I have no idea what play other than the correct play someone would make.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 3 09:24:33 2022
    XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    At gammon go, hitting on the 4pt would be a serious candidate, but at
    most scores, locking up an asset with 24/18 is much better. I tried
    24/18 10/5, but this play volunteers too many extra shots for too little potential gain.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/8 eq:+0.141
    Player: 53.65% (G:11.47% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 46.35% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.128..+0.154) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/18 10/5 eq:+0.054 (-0.087)
    Player: 51.55% (G:11.33% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 48.45% (G:10.78% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.041..+0.068) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 18/13 10/4* eq:+0.039 (-0.102)
    Player: 51.08% (G:13.93% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 48.92% (G:13.24% B:0.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.024..+0.054) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1* eq:+0.031 (-0.110)
    Player: 50.91% (G:11.75% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 49.09% (G:11.74% B:0.48%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.016..+0.046) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 10/4* 6/1* eq:+0.015 (-0.126)
    Player: 50.33% (G:15.38% B:0.60%)
    Opponent: 49.67% (G:14.55% B:0.75%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.002..+0.032) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)