When the opponent anchors, the blitz is over, right?

XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/24/2022 7:27 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:

When the opponent anchors, the blitz is over, right?

XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |             O    |   | O  O  O  O       |
 |             O    |   | O  O  O  O       |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |             X    | O |                  |
 |             X    | O |                  |
 |             X    |   | X           X    |
 |             X    |   | X     O     X  X |
 |    X  X     X    |   | X  O  O     X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 87  O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

Gammons tend to go poof once the opponent anchors, but not necessarily
when she has five checkers back.

Hitting is risky, but so is letting her make the second anchor. I've
been dinged for not hitting in situations like this (but I don't think
any that really match this) so I'll hit loose here. Then, 8/6 looks more flexible than 11/9.


10/5* 8/6.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

It's important to note that X is playing on for the gammon here. You
could argue that X should have cashed; according to XG 3-ply and
XG 4-ply, it's a play-on, but on higher settings, XG recommends cashing.
In any case, getting hit back would certainly not allow X to cash any
time soon, so XG recommends playing safe here despite the ugliness.

With the cube turned, XG hits with 10/5* 8/6 and says that playing safe
is a whopper.

1. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/6 eq:+0.714
Player: 61.02% (G:38.89% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 38.98% (G:6.15% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.699..+0.729) - [51.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/6 10/8 eq:+0.713
Player: 60.13% (G:35.57% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 39.87% (G:6.81% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.698..+0.729) - [48.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/5* 8/6 eq:+0.624 (-0.090)
Player: 62.91% (G:46.67% B:1.29%)
Opponent: 37.09% (G:7.61% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.612..+0.635) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 10/5* 5/3 eq:+0.557 (-0.157)
Player: 60.87% (G:43.97% B:1.05%)
Opponent: 39.13% (G:9.17% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.544..+0.570) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 11/9 10/5* eq:+0.536 (-0.178)
Player: 60.54% (G:45.02% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 39.46% (G:9.61% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.523..+0.549) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-----------
O owns cube
-----------

XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 10/5* 8/6 eq:+0.496
Player: 62.78% (G:46.74% B:1.36%)
Opponent: 37.22% (G:7.82% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.486..+0.506) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9 10/5* eq:+0.425 (-0.072)
Player: 60.65% (G:45.14% B:1.20%)
Opponent: 39.35% (G:9.71% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.415..+0.434) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/5* 5/3 eq:+0.413 (-0.083)
Player: 60.95% (G:44.26% B:1.05%)
Opponent: 39.05% (G:9.22% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.404..+0.423) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/6 eq:+0.385 (-0.111)
Player: 61.00% (G:38.85% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 39.00% (G:6.23% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.375..+0.396) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 11/6 10/8 eq:+0.327 (-0.169)
Player: 59.73% (G:35.55% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 40.27% (G:7.00% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.317..+0.338) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)