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  • Test your EPC skills

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 22 20:23:39 2022
    I was talking with Art Benjamin about his recent work on racing
    formulas, and he pointed me to the following cool page by Hal Heinrich
    which lets you test your ability to estimate EPC.

    https://boinqserver20220506131748.azurewebsites.net/positionquiz

    Art says that he's usually able to get the EPC correct to within
    half a pip, using techniques that he's written about in his USBGF
    PrimeTime column.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Nov 23 23:00:03 2022
    Timothy Chow <[email protected]> writes:

    https://boinqserver20220506131748.azurewebsites.net/positionquiz

    Thanks.

    Art says that he's usually able to get the EPC correct to within half
    a pip

    I am not that good with my EPC approximation (about 1 pip off, as
    written in my article), but I expected this.

    using techniques that he's written about in his USBGF PrimeTime column

    Could you please provide a link?

    Best regards

    Axel

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Thu Nov 24 19:08:02 2022
    On 11/23/2022 5:00 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:
    using techniques that he's written about in his USBGF PrimeTime column

    Could you please provide a link?

    The link is https://usbgf.org/primetime-magazine/ but that won't do you
    much good unless you pay to join the USBGF.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 25 07:13:43 2022
    Timothy Chow <[email protected]> writes:

    The link is https://usbgf.org/primetime-magazine/ but that won't do
    you much good unless you pay to join the USBGF.

    Which does not make that much sense for a local player from Germany. I
    was already suspecting this. Thanks anyway.

    Best regards

    Axel

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  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 25 10:41:15 2022
    On 11/22/2022 8:23 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    I was talking with Art Benjamin about his recent work on racing
    formulas, and he pointed me to the following cool page by Hal Heinrich
    which lets you test your ability to estimate EPC.

    https://boinqserver20220506131748.azurewebsites.net/positionquiz

    Art says that he's usually able to get the EPC correct to within
    half a pip, using techniques that he's written about in his USBGF
    PrimeTime column.

    Assuming I could get to the point where I could calculate EPC with that
    level of accuracy, would that provide better cube decisions than simply
    using ISight or something similar?



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Fri Nov 25 13:10:09 2022
    On 11/25/2022 10:41 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 11/22/2022 8:23 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    I was talking with Art Benjamin about his recent work on racing
    formulas, and he pointed me to the following cool page by Hal Heinrich
    which lets you test your ability to estimate EPC.

    https://boinqserver20220506131748.azurewebsites.net/positionquiz

    Art says that he's usually able to get the EPC correct to within
    half a pip, using techniques that he's written about in his USBGF
    PrimeTime column.

    Assuming I could get to the point where I could calculate EPC with that
    level of accuracy, would that provide better cube decisions than simply
    using ISight or something similar?

    Art's claim is a qualified yes. He's given talks about this but hasn't published anything yet. In addition to EPC, his main new idea is that
    one should try to estimate the *variance* in the number of rolls needed
    to bear off, and not just the *expected value* (i.e., EPC). You don't
    need to estimate the variance precisely; you just need to be able to
    assess a position as being in one of four categories (I forget what he
    calls the categories, but you can think of them as low, medium low,
    medium high, and high). If you can do this, and memorize a few
    additional numbers, then he claims you can achieve significantly higher accuracy than Keith or ISight.

    Whether it's worth all that effort to master his method is of course
    another question.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Nov 26 00:43:01 2022
    Timothy Chow <[email protected]> writes:

    In addition to EPC, his main new idea is that one should try to
    estimate the *variance* in the number of rolls needed to bear off, and
    not just the *expected value* (i.e., EPC).

    Yes. I discussed this with Bob Koca (IIRC) shortly after publishing my
    Isight article. I played around with this idea a little bit, and it
    seemed promising, but my gut feeling was that it needs much more effort
    for perhaps only a slight gain. Hence I did not pursue this any further,
    but it is still on my to-do list.

    he claims you can achieve significantly higher accuracy than Keith or
    ISight.

    Well, Isight is already around 15 % better than Keith. With LESS
    adjustments.

    Whether it's worth all that effort to master his method is of course
    another question.

    Yup.

    Best regards

    Axel

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  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Sat Nov 26 00:36:08 2022
    "ah....Clem" <[email protected]> writes:

    [EPC estimates 0.5 pips off]

    Assuming I could get to the point where I could calculate EPC with
    that level of accuracy, would that provide better cube decisions than
    simply using ISight or something similar?

    I would guess so. Section 6.1 in my article has quite some information
    on this topic. Especially table 6 is relevant.

    Best regards

    Axel

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Sat Nov 26 11:00:12 2022
    On 11/25/2022 1:13 AM, Axel Reichert wrote:
    Timothy Chow <[email protected]> writes:

    The link is https://usbgf.org/primetime-magazine/ but that won't do
    you much good unless you pay to join the USBGF.

    Which does not make that much sense for a local player from Germany. I
    was already suspecting this. Thanks anyway.

    Well, the main (only?) reason I joined was to obtain access to the
    PrimeTime magazine premium content. For $85, you get electronic
    access to all the back issues. (I'm assuming that your being in
    Germany would not change this fact.)

    ---
    Tim Chow

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