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  • Holding game with straggler

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 12 18:43:03 2022
    XGID=---aBBDCb---cC-A-a-d--bb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 117 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 32

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 14 09:46:39 2022
    XGID=---aBBDCb---cC-A-a-d--bb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 117 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 32

    I succumbed to the temptation to hit here, but XG says that the
    win/gammon tradeoff isn't worth it.

    1. Rollout¹ 15/13 7/4 eq:+0.506
    Player: 75.08% (G:9.49% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 24.92% (G:1.67% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.500..+0.512) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 15/13 6/3* eq:+0.427 (-0.079)
    Player: 68.77% (G:22.97% B:0.58%)
    Opponent: 31.23% (G:6.87% B:0.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.420..+0.435) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/3* eq:+0.402 (-0.104)
    Player: 67.74% (G:25.59% B:0.85%)
    Opponent: 32.26% (G:9.24% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.394..+0.411) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 15 13:48:50 2022
    On 11/12/2022 6:43 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---aBBDCb---cC-A-a-d--bb--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     X     O    |   | O        O  O    | +---+  | X                |   | O        O  O    | | 2 |
     | X                |   | O                | +---+
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X                |  | O           O  X |   | X  X  X          |
     | O           O  X |   | X  X  X  O       |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 117  O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 32

    For some reason, my version of Thunderbird is not picking up new
    messages unless I restart it. Hence falling behind in the threads.

    O's board is poor and X's is good, so I'll hit loose. Should win more
    gammons than a safe play. Then, I'll safety the blot on the 15, although
    if I'm being aggressive playing 7/5 for more covers seems thematic. But
    I'll stick with 15/13.

    15/13 6/3*

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