XGID=----BbD-C---cCAaa--bb-bBb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X O |
| X | | O O O X O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 2:00:19 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=----BbD-C---cCAaa--bb-bBb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X O |
| X | | O O O X O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

Yes, break the anchor to hit. It's a good opportunity to attempt partially escaping from the low anchor and freeing your game.
Your opponent is not well placed to attach the two point, but might be soon.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Hit!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----BbD-C---cCAaa--bb-bBb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X O |
| X | | O O O X O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

The bot plays 23/16*. O has a ton of return shots that will put X on
the bar against a four-point board, so one has to weigh the increased
risk of losing a gammon against the increased winning chances. See
the variant for a position where XG doesn't hit.

1. Rollout¹ 23/16* eq:-0.492
Player: 40.84% (G:7.81% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 59.16% (G:27.10% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.504..-0.480) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/7 eq:-0.571 (-0.079)
Player: 36.59% (G:6.98% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 63.41% (G:17.72% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.583..-0.559) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 14/8 4/3 eq:-0.581 (-0.089)
Player: 35.70% (G:6.34% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 64.30% (G:15.88% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.593..-0.568) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.591 (-0.099)
Player: 36.96% (G:6.70% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 63.04% (G:19.51% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.606..-0.577) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 14/13 8/2 eq:-0.601 (-0.109)
Player: 35.12% (G:6.23% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 64.88% (G:15.31% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.613..-0.588) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----BbD-C---cCAaa--bbbbB--:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O X |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 14/7 eq:-0.478
Player: 27.82% (G:4.36% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 72.18% (G:17.19% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.485..-0.471) - [56.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/13 8/2 eq:-0.479 (-0.002)
Player: 26.98% (G:4.12% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 73.02% (G:15.55% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.486..-0.472) - [33.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/16* eq:-0.484 (-0.007)
Player: 32.14% (G:5.25% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 67.86% (G:29.69% B:1.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.493..-0.475) - [7.3%]

4. Rollout¹ 14/8 4/3 eq:-0.486 (-0.008)
Player: 27.14% (G:4.36% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 72.86% (G:16.93% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.494..-0.478) - [2.9%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

29 Mayıs 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 16:24:44 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

X is ahead in the race and hitting while running is a good reason to break an anchor. Of course, the reasonable move after 21/17* is 17/16.
But his homeboard is weaker and will leave 21 shots. 21 shots is a lot and many can be dangerous. So I would play 13/8

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

Even after studying this position for a while, I find the tradeoff
difficult to judge. Hitting still looks to me like the clear DMP
play, and in fact XG 3-ply hits at DMP, but according to XG the plays
are close at DMP. If you can see this then certainly you won't risk
all those gammon losses by breaking anchor for money.

But see the variant below, where hitting is the clear DMP play
according to XG.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.006
Player: 48.98% (G:11.58% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 51.02% (G:9.77% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.018..+0.006) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.102 (-0.095)
Player: 48.61% (G:14.00% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 51.39% (G:19.18% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.116..-0.087) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-aB-E-C---cC---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.001
Player: 49.35% (G:12.14% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 50.65% (G:10.32% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.005..+0.007) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.018 (-0.019)
Player: 50.28% (G:15.25% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 49.72% (G:17.62% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.026..-0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 7:07:45 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
Even after studying this position for a while, I find the tradeoff
difficult to judge. Hitting still looks to me like the clear DMP
play, and in fact XG 3-ply hits at DMP, but according to XG the plays
are close at DMP. If you can see this then certainly you won't risk
all those gammon losses by breaking anchor for money.

But see the variant below, where hitting is the clear DMP play
according to XG.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.006
Player: 48.98% (G:11.58% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 51.02% (G:9.77% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.018..+0.006) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.102 (-0.095)
Player: 48.61% (G:14.00% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 51.39% (G:19.18% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.116..-0.087) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-aB-E-C---cC---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.001
Player: 49.35% (G:12.14% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 50.65% (G:10.32% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.005..+0.007) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.018 (-0.019)
Player: 50.28% (G:15.25% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 49.72% (G:17.62% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.026..-0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

In the original position it's correct to play safe at dmp by over 1% (.025) and you call an amount less than that 'clear' in your variant?

Also, in the variant hitting is only correct by about half a percent (.010) at dmp.

You can't use money rollouts to support dmp figures.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 5/31/2022 8:47 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

In the original position it's correct to play safe at dmp by over 1% (.025) and you call an amount less than that 'clear' in your variant?

Also, in the variant hitting is only correct by about half a percent (.010) at dmp.

You can't use money rollouts to support dmp figures.

Obviously, I did not assume that pseudocubeless win numbers
were the same as DMP wins. But in this case I did trust XGR++
without doing a full rollout. Interesting that there is a
noticeable difference between XGR++ and a full rollout in
these two positions.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)