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  • How about this...is this a blitz cube?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 6 07:44:14 2022
    XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    | O X X O | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Nov 6 13:29:34 2022
    On Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 7:44:15 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    | O X X O | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    It's not a blitz cube however it is a blitz position.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 8 07:50:55 2022
    XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    | O X X O | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Eleven checkers in the zone, a three-point board, a 20+ pip lead,
    and the back checkers mostly escaped---these factors would often
    be enough to justify a double. But O has a strong board, and has
    a good chance of anchoring and ending the blitz. According to the
    rollout below, it's not a double yet, despite the high gammon win rate.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 54.16% (G:31.29% B:0.52%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 45.84% (G:16.24% B:0.97%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 54.52% (G:31.45% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 45.48% (G:16.34% B:1.01%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.308
    Double/Take: +0.123 (-0.185)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.692)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.1%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.294..+0.321)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.101..+0.144)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 11 16:48:38 2022
    On 11/6/2022 7:44 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  X |   | O  O  X  O       |  |             O  X |   | O  O     O       |  |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O     X        O |   | X           X  X |
     | O  X  X        O |   | X        O  X  X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 131  O: 159 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    Yeah, this looks like a blitz, or like it could be. Only a single direct
    shot at the blot, so not as overwhelming as they are sometimes. Only 33
    points on O's head, and the numbers that hit loose offer a bit of
    counterplay, as does the three blots strewn around the board.

    Take seems clear. What are the market losers? Making a fourth homeboard
    point followed by a dance, but that appears shy of the 25% usually
    needed. So I'll hold this one.

    ND/T.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)