1. Forum
  2. Usenet
  3. REC.GAMES.BACKGAMMON

  • Would you call this a blitz cube?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 5 10:13:47 2022
    XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Nov 5 13:07:40 2022
    On 11/5/2022 10:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           X    |   | O  O        O    |
     | X                |   | O  O        O    |
     | X                |   | O                |  |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O           X    |   |                  |  | O  X        X  O |   | X  X  X     O    |
     | O  X        X  O |   | X  X  X     O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 132  O: 178 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Hard to really blitz the opponent off the board when they hold an
    anchor. Looks to develop into a bar point holding game and I'm not
    seeing many market losers, so I'll hold this one. If I'm right I guess
    that means it's not a blitz cube since it's not a cube of any kind.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Nov 5 10:24:57 2022
    On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 10:13:49 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Not a blitz cube even though gammon wins are in the ballpark of where many blitz cubes are. A blitz by definition aims to close the opponent out completely.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 7 08:27:34 2022
    XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb--b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    As Stick says, the term "blitz" is (usually) not used when the "blitzee"
    has an anchor, but there are a lot of positions that, except for the
    anchor, are similar to a blitz. I collect these positions separately,
    because they come up often, and the effect of the anchor is not so easy
    to judge in many cases.

    Here, XG says it's a clear pass, but if we upgrade O's 2pt to her 3pt,
    it pushes the rollout into take territory (see variant below).

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 72.61% (G:22.61% B:1.17%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.39% (G:3.82% B:0.13%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 73.02% (G:22.23% B:1.19%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 26.98% (G:3.92% B:0.13%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.989 (-0.011)
    Double/Take: +1.098 (+0.098)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.983..+0.996)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.080..+1.116)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-b-BBBbC--BcC---A-cb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 180 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 70.48% (G:22.44% B:1.25%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.52% (G:4.19% B:0.16%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.83% (G:22.00% B:1.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.17% (G:4.31% B:0.17%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.938 (-0.032)
    Double/Take: +0.970
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.030)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.922..+0.954)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.950..+0.990)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)