Final problem in this series.

XGID=-a-BbABCB---aa--bc-cBbC---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/31/2022 7:51 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

Final problem in this series.

XGID=-a-BbABCB---aa--bc-cBbC---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | O        O  O    |   | O  X  O  X       |
 |          O  O    |   | O  X  O  X       |
 |             O    |   | O        X       |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                X |   |                  |
 |             X  X |   | X     O  X       |
 | O           X  X |   | X  X  O  X     O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 166  O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

Looks like a quasi double backgame. O doesn't have a backgame structure,
but X does. Mobility seems to be paramount, and if X makes the five
point what to do with the ace? I'll step up to the 20 point and play 7/6.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-BbABCB---aa--bc-cBbC---:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

If you have been paying attention, you'll notice that in all six
problems in this series, XG thought that making the 5pt was the wrong
play. I didn't plan it this way; I was amassing interesting positions
as I usually do, and noticed that I had accumulated half a dozen
positions involving making the 5pt. Only after I decided to do a
series on them did I notice that in none of them did XG make the 5pt.
So maybe this says something about my predilections...perhaps I should
dial back my tendency to make the 5pt?

Anyway, I like ah_clem's assessment of the position, that there's no
way to make the 5pt and not leave some other blot, and that playing
22/20 is more urgent than covering the 5pt blot.

1. Rollout¹ 22/20 7/6 eq:-0.385
Player: 40.89% (G:10.11% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 59.11% (G:17.04% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.394..-0.377) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:-0.465 (-0.080)
Player: 38.38% (G:10.29% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.05% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.473..-0.457) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 7/6 7/5 eq:-0.512 (-0.127)
Player: 37.61% (G:9.71% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 62.39% (G:17.62% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.529..-0.496) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)