XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/25/2022 7:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     X     O  O |   | O  O             |
 | X           O    |   | O  O             |
 | X           O    |   | O                |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X     O          |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 142  O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

X is outboarded so hitting loose seems like the wrong idea. Race is
very close. I'm not sure Pottle's law applies if you're already in the outfield, but I'll apply it here and play 15/9.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, October 26, 2022 at 10:47:15 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:

On 10/25/2022 7:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

X is outboarded so hitting loose seems like the wrong idea. Race is
very close. I'm not sure Pottle's law applies if you're already in the outfield, but I'll apply it here and play 15/9.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Illegal and oddly enough, worse than the legal play.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----a-E-D---dE-A-cadb-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

Congratulations to ah_clem for finding the bot play (even though ah_clem mistakenly typed 15/9 rather than 15/10). OTB, I considered most of the
plays displayed in the rollout below *except* 15/10. I eventually
decided to hit, but the main non-hitting alternative I pondered was
15/11 6/5. But 15/10 leaves fewer shots (14 instead of 15, none of
which are double-hitting rolls) and blots, and duplicates O's sixes.

1. Rollout¹ 15/10 eq:-0.306
Player: 40.96% (G:2.95% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 59.04% (G:8.96% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.315..-0.297) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4* 4/3 eq:-0.350 (-0.044)
Player: 42.07% (G:4.90% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 57.93% (G:15.05% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.360..-0.341) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/11 6/5 eq:-0.427 (-0.121)
Player: 38.99% (G:3.06% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 61.01% (G:10.29% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.438..-0.416) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.434 (-0.128)
Player: 38.88% (G:3.58% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 61.12% (G:11.39% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.444..-0.423) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/3 eq:-0.442 (-0.136)
Player: 38.62% (G:3.74% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 61.38% (G:11.73% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.452..-0.432) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 15/11 8/7 eq:-0.457 (-0.151)
Player: 37.64% (G:2.96% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 62.36% (G:10.07% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.466..-0.447) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 15/14 6/2 eq:-0.462 (-0.156)
Player: 37.64% (G:2.76% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 62.36% (G:10.83% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.470..-0.454) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 15/14 8/4* eq:-0.485 (-0.180)
Player: 38.74% (G:4.84% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 61.26% (G:17.28% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.495..-0.476) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)