XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---aC-aBa-bbbbb-B:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---aC-aBa-bbbbb-B:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

I thought that this excellent roll might provide a good opportunity to
try to seize the advantage, and I hit twice. But the rollout below hates
it. It may be that O's super-joker 55 from the bar is just too strong.
In the variant, O has no way to hit back immediately from the bar, and
the top two plays roll out to a tie.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.102
Player: 44.07% (G:9.69% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 55.93% (G:24.28% B:2.82%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.114..-0.090) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24(2) 16/15* 13/12* eq:-0.204 (-0.102)
Player: 41.03% (G:11.58% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 58.97% (G:27.37% B:3.17%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.216..-0.192) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---aCaB-a-bbbbb-B:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.189
Player: 41.52% (G:8.57% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 58.48% (G:25.07% B:3.06%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.199..-0.179) - [56.6%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24(2) 15/14* 13/12* eq:-0.191 (-0.001)
Player: 41.29% (G:11.57% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 58.71% (G:27.18% B:3.15%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.201..-0.180) - [43.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 8:34:51 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

It may be that O's super-joker 55 from the bar is just too strong.
In the variant, O has no way to hit back immediately from the bar, and
the top two plays roll out to a tie.

Come again? In the variant O has two! ways to hit back from the bar with that super joker [55].

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/18/2022 7:37 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

On Tuesday, October 18, 2022 at 8:34:51 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
>It may be that O's super-joker 55 from the bar is just too strong.

In the variant, O has no way to hit back immediately from the bar, and
the top two plays roll out to a tie.

Come again? In the variant O has two! ways to hit back from the bar with that super joker [55].

Whoops! Yes, of course...I mixed up the variant I posted with a
different variant I was looking at but didn't post. So now I'm not sure
what's going on.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)