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  • Tim would use a less imaginative title if he posted this position

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 10 15:49:45 2022
    The below position would make a plausible quiz question for Tim.
    However, he would give it a much more prosaic and dully descriptive
    title like "Opening blitz cube action".
    This is a more serious approach, and is of great help to those who
    value organisation and systematization of knowledge. But I enjoy
    much more giving freer rein to my imagination.
    Chacun a son gout as Stick (who majored in French) might say.

    Paul Epstein

    XGID=ab-aBaD-C---cD---c-d-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X O X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 202 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Tue Oct 11 09:07:25 2022
    On 10/10/2022 6:49 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=ab-aBaD-C---cD---c-d-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X O X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 202 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Despite the 50-pip difference, this looks like an easy take to me.
    X has only a two-point board and nine checkers in the zone. O
    already has an anchor and is probably going to get a second one;
    she has no structural weaknesses, and if she anchors on the 3pt
    (say) then she should be ready to play a viable backgame.

    I don't think I would double here. X may lose his market if O
    dances, but that's not too likely.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Oct 14 15:39:10 2022
    On Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 2:07:28 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 10/10/2022 6:49 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=ab-aBaD-C---cD---c-d-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X | | X O X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 202 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Despite the 50-pip difference, this looks like an easy take to me.
    X has only a two-point board and nine checkers in the zone. O
    already has an anchor and is probably going to get a second one;
    she has no structural weaknesses, and if she anchors on the 3pt
    (say) then she should be ready to play a viable backgame.

    I don't think I would double here. X may lose his market if O
    dances, but that's not too likely.

    It's a monster double and a marginal take/pass.
    Possibly a hyper by you according to my new terminology.
    XG passed OTB but took in the rollout.

    Paul

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.78% (G:34.40% B:5.64%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.22% (G:6.07% B:0.28%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.90% (G:34.71% B:5.76%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.10% (G:5.95% B:0.27%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.633, Double=+1.281

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.786 (-0.196)
    Double/Take: +0.982
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.018)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.769..+0.803)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+0.956..+1.008)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 91.4%

    Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)