On Saturday, October 8, 2022 at 2:44:08 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-bbBBAEb--------------g-b-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X O O |
| O | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 49 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
This is a highly unusual position in that the opponent's inner board is so awful despite their anchors.
So the non-expert player's intuition is likely to be skewed and a strange QF play is likely to be correct.
Despite all this, leaving a shot must be bad. Sure, being hit won't usually lose, but it will surely
needlessly compromise our gammon chances.
So the candidates are 6/3 6/5 and 6/3 5/4
5/4 must be the QF play and there is a competitive nature in me which wants to be right.
But it seems like a copout to just give 5/4 right away without any analysis. Let's count the shotleavers. That might be why 5/4 is right.
Maybe just a crude count of all the blotting numbers ignoring the number of hits for the opponent.
6/5 blots to any 6 apart from 63, 54, 53, 43, 22.
This is 16 numbers.
5/4 blots to 41 and I think that's it.
6/3 5/4 must be correct.
It's quite possible that I counted somewhat Waltishly -- I didn't check as much as usual.
But, even allowing for possible inaccuracies in the count, 6/3 5/4 must be correct, and it must be
an easy problem.
I think that some problems have a message of "Avoid this blunder" rather than "Try to figure out the play."
More a cautionary tale than a problem. Tim, which one of Hilaire Belloc's Cautionary Tales quotes this
position? I had no idea that he played backgammon.
Paul
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