XGID=--BBbBC-B---b---bc-bBB-bb-:1:-1:1:65:3:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X X O O | +---+
| O O | | O X X O O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 128 X-O: 3-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/29/2022 8:18 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--BBbBC-B---b---bc-bBB-bb-:1:-1:1:65:3:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |          O  O    |   | O  X  X     O  O | +---+  |          O  O    |   | O  X  X     O  O | | 2 |  |             O    |   |                  | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X  X  O  X  X    |
 | O           X    |   | X  X  O  X  X    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 136  O: 128 X-O: 3-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

Not sure if the score or cube position matters here. It probably does,
but I'm not sure how it affects the checker play here.

Playing both checkers off the 21 means that most of O's hits will break
the midpoint. But a double direct shot seems rather loose. 21/10 seems
to leave fewer shots (at least shots that don't leave a homeboard blot
for X to shoot at) and makes her break anchor to hit.

Burying checkers with 6/1 or by clearing the eight point seems
anti-positional - O owns her ace and deuce points and that's not
conducive to exchanging hits.


I'll play 21/10 as the least bad alternative.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--BBbBC-B---b---bc-bBB-bb-:1:-1:1:65:3:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X X O O | +---+
| O O | | O X X O O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 128 X-O: 3-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

There are a few candidates here, but I'd like to highlight the two
plays 20/15 20/14 and 21/15 20/15. XG says the DMP play is
21/15 20/15 by a long shot, but giving up both anchors loses a lot
of gammons. For money, XG says that it's a tossup between the two
plays. However, ATS, the gammons loom large. O has an immediate
redouble, after which gammons win the match for her. ATS, XG says
that the double jump 20/15 20/14 is the only viable play.

1. Rollout¹ 20/15 20/14 eq:-0.449
Player: 48.24% (G:12.77% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 51.76% (G:11.43% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.458..-0.441) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/10 eq:-0.548 (-0.099)
Player: 45.29% (G:11.71% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 54.71% (G:11.72% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.560..-0.537) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/15 eq:-0.611 (-0.162)
Player: 50.73% (G:15.22% B:1.59%)
Opponent: 49.27% (G:20.90% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.624..-0.599) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 271828
First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=--BBbBC-B---b---bc-bBB-bb-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X X O O | +---+
| O O | | O X X O O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/15 eq:-0.228
Player: 50.70% (G:13.12% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 49.30% (G:19.55% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.237..-0.220) - [64.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/15 20/14 eq:-0.231 (-0.002)
Player: 48.29% (G:12.36% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 51.71% (G:11.47% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.239..-0.222) - [35.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/10 eq:-0.313 (-0.085)
Player: 45.44% (G:11.89% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 54.56% (G:11.77% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.321..-0.305) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/9 eq:-0.321 (-0.092)
Player: 45.31% (G:12.16% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 54.69% (G:11.92% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.330..-0.312) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 271828
First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)