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  • I think that everyone attempting the quiz will give the same answer.

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Wed Oct 6 15:36:11 2021
    Why do I think the answers will all be the same?
    Well, there's quite a high probability that Tim is the only answerer,
    which would make my prediction true. And it would also be vacuously
    true for zero answerers.
    I think it's a tricky position where opinions are likely to differ.
    But if only one person answers, then that doesn't leave much room
    for controversy. "I agree. I disagree with what I said yesterday
    and am changing my position today...."

    Paul

    XGID=-a---CCBBC--da---babbb---B:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Thu Oct 7 22:24:34 2021
    On 10/6/2021 6:36 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=-a---CCBBC--da---babbb---B:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I'd evaluate this as being primarily a priming position,
    and on that basis, I think that O's five-prime, with X
    not at the edge, gives him a take. It does worry me that
    O is disconnected and that X will win more gammons than O
    does, but I would still evaluate this as D/T.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Oct 10 04:46:55 2021
    On Friday, October 8, 2021 at 3:24:34 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 10/6/2021 6:36 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=-a---CCBBC--da---babbb---B:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X |
    | X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    I'd evaluate this as being primarily a priming position,
    and on that basis, I think that O's five-prime, with X
    not at the edge, gives him a take. It does worry me that
    O is disconnected and that X will win more gammons than O
    does, but I would still evaluate this as D/T.

    Actually a marginal pass but I think XG's analysis, before rolling out,
    gave a take.
    I took but wasn't at all sure. It's hard to pass when you've got a 5 point prime
    with your opponent away from the edge. It can take an age to leap those.

    I'm not sure that any human can reliably distinguish marginal passes and marginal takes
    in this position so anyone who recognises that the action is unclear deserves a baked potato.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 71.88% (G:22.11% B:0.71%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.12% (G:5.84% B:0.32%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 72.00% (G:22.74% B:0.76%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.00% (G:5.88% B:0.30%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.604, Double=+1.227

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.905 (-0.095)
    Double/Take: +1.016 (+0.016)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.895..+0.916)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.999..+1.034)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 96.4%

    Duration: 34 minutes 33 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


    Paul

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 18 00:52:46 2021
    I agree

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