XGID=aBBBB-Bb--B-bC----acbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 91 O: 134 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 9/23/2022 8:31 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBBB-Bb--B-bC----acbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X              O |   | O  O  O     O    |
 | X                |   | O  O  O     O    |
 | X                |   | O                |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O     X        O |   | X     X  X  X  X |
 | O     X        O |   | X     X  X  X  X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 91  O: 134 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Does O have 18% here? She has a decent board, but I'm not seeing X
coughing up enough shots to justify a take. Is it TG? Unless something
really unexpected happens, X should have a cash next roll. So roll.

TG/P.

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XGID=aBBBB-Bb--B-bC----acbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 91 O: 134 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This problem follows the same theme as the previous problem. It
shows that even my amended version of Stick's rule isn't perfect.
This is a gammonish position, and according to the rollout, it's
not a borderline take/pass decision---it's a clear pass.

Nevertheless, XG says it's a big double. Such positions are rare
in my experience. Despite X's huge gammon win percentage (~43%),
XG says that X isn't good enough to play on. And yet, apparently
O cannot take either. According to Rollout Statistics, O gets in
a recube more than half the time if she takes, and X has to take
about 80% of those recubes. Fortunately for X, his very low rate
of losing gammons means that he will rarely (~3% of the time) lose
the match this game (assuming D/T). So O must pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 77.15% (G:40.28% B:0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.85% (G:3.98% B:0.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.77% (G:43.07% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.23% (G:4.67% B:0.21%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.892 (-0.108)
Double/Take: +1.128 (+0.128)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.884..+0.900)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.112..+1.145)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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