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  • Hit or cover? 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 4 09:41:05 2022
    XGID=-bBACCB--A--a----c-dB-eA--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O X O X | +---+
    | O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X O |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Sep 4 13:37:28 2022
    On Sunday, September 4, 2022 at 9:41:08 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bBACCB--A--a----c-dB-eA--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O X O X | +---+
    | O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X O |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Which play do you make at dmp? For me, I'm not sure which makes the play for money simple because hitting will net a bunch more gammons.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Sep 5 09:45:25 2022
    On 9/4/2022 9:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bBACCB--A--a----c-dB-eA--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O    |   | O  X     O  X    | +---+  |             O    |   | O  X     O       | | 2 |
     |             O    |   | O        O       | +---+
     |                  |   | O        O       |  |                  |   |          O       |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |    X  X          |  |                  |   | X  X  X     X  O |
     | O        X       |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 118  O: 124 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65


    X is ahead in the race, so perhaps a safe play is called for, but
    covering seems so passive when hitting gives so many opportunities to
    quickly put the game into gammon territory. . O has no board and X has
    an advanced anchor, so nothing to fear about being hit. Meanwhile, 1s
    2s 6s and 9 cover. Do what's hard first.

    23/12*

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 6 09:13:28 2022
    XGID=-bBACCB--A--a----c-dB-eA--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O X O X | +---+
    | O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X O |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65

    Part of the equation here is that the 3pt is not all that crucial a
    point to make. In the variant, I have changed things so that it's a
    choice between hitting and making the 4pt.

    1. Rollout¹ 23/12* eq:+0.936
    Player: 84.06% (G:31.83% B:2.58%)
    Opponent: 15.94% (G:2.61% B:0.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.929..+0.943) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/18 9/3 eq:+0.866 (-0.070)
    Player: 84.75% (G:22.90% B:1.18%)
    Opponent: 15.25% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.861..+0.871) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-bBBACC---A-a----c-dB-eA--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O X O X | +---+
    | O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X O |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65

    1. Rollout¹ 23/18 10/4 eq:+0.861
    Player: 84.55% (G:23.17% B:1.13%)
    Opponent: 15.45% (G:1.36% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.855..+0.867) - [83.3%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/12* eq:+0.857 (-0.005)
    Player: 81.71% (G:29.94% B:2.51%)
    Opponent: 18.29% (G:3.51% B:0.12%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.849..+0.864) - [16.7%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)