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  • Does RGB provide free tuition?

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 2 10:20:51 2022
    I took the below, thinking that I have plenty of chances and that the threats aren't that dramatic.
    I know that resulting is a horrible sin, and I don't like it as
    someone who uses statistics professionally, but my take
    was certainly vindicated when I become an equity favourite during the game.
    Why is taking so criminal?
    When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
    induce a drop?

    Paul

    XGID=-a---aE-D---bEaa-b-bbba--A:0:0:-1:00:8:2:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:2 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 140 O: 152 X-O: 2-8
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in XG Roller+
    Player Winning Chances: 75.53% (G:38.56% B:0.54%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.47% (G:3.88% B:0.15%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.861, Double=+1.749

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.934 (-0.066)
    Double/Take: +1.569 (+0.569)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Nasti Chestikov@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Fri Sep 2 10:23:34 2022
    On Friday, 2 September 2022 at 18:20:52 UTC+1, [email protected] wrote:
    I took the below, thinking that I have plenty of chances and that the threats aren't that dramatic.
    I know that resulting is a horrible sin, and I don't like it as
    someone who uses statistics professionally, but my take
    was certainly vindicated when I become an equity favourite during the game. Why is taking so criminal?
    When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
    induce a drop?

    Paul

    XGID=-a---aE-D---bEaa-b-bbba--A:0:0:-1:00:8:2:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:2 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 140 O: 152 X-O: 2-8
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in XG Roller+
    Player Winning Chances: 75.53% (G:38.56% B:0.54%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.47% (G:3.88% B:0.15%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.861, Double=+1.749

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.934 (-0.066)
    Double/Take: +1.569 (+0.569)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    If you want expert advice on how to hawk a fast car around the US then there's no better place than this, even if the chief protagonist is somewhat reluctant to admit to his skillset.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Fri Sep 2 19:52:39 2022
    "[email protected]" <[email protected]> writes:

    Why is taking so criminal?

    Blitz.

    Behind in the race, against a 3.5 board with 11 in the zone.

    Axel

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Fri Sep 2 17:21:07 2022
    On Friday, September 2, 2022 at 1:52:41 PM UTC-4, Axel Reichert wrote:
    "[email protected]" <[email protected]> writes:

    Why is taking so criminal?
    Blitz.

    Behind in the race, against a 3.5 board with 11 in the zone.

    Axel

    And no real flexibility or development of our own.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Sep 3 06:35:22 2022
    On Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 2:32:40 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 9/2/2022 1:20 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
    induce a drop?
    No threats? What's your definition of a threat? The position looks threatening to me. The opponent is threatening to close you out and
    win a gammon.

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I just meant that with 2.5 points open, the closeout won't happen any time soon.
    I probably take too many, but I do sometimes get massively dinged for bad drops,
    so it's tricky for me.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sat Sep 3 15:43:21 2022
    "[email protected]" <[email protected]> writes:

    I just meant that with 2.5 points open, the closeout won't happen any
    time soon. I probably take too many, but I do sometimes get massively
    dinged for bad drops, so it's tricky for me.

    Have a look at

    https://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/May00/blitz.htm

    to get a feel for blitz positions. Do some parameter studies using
    optimization software, and you might come up with an Epstein count for
    blitzes, valued by generations of players still to come!

    Axel

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sat Sep 3 09:32:36 2022
    On 9/2/2022 1:20 PM, [email protected] wrote:
    When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
    induce a drop?

    No threats? What's your definition of a threat? The position looks threatening to me. The opponent is threatening to close you out and
    win a gammon.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)