XGID=-a-B--CC--B-cD-a-bbdb---A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
In a recent post about Pottle's law, I wrote:
If you're ahead or equal in the pip count, and your opponent has one
or more checkers back, then you typically gain a lot by converting to
a position in which you have no checkers back. This potential gain is usually worth exposing your last checker to a double shot, or
sometimes even a triple shot.
[...]
What I often see are players who are afraid to run the last checker
into a double shot, because they underestimate how much they gain if
they are missed and they also underestimate the danger of having their
last checker trapped and/or attacked.
The present position is a good illustration of the above comments.
There were three respondents, none of whom chose to Pottle. But XG
says that it's a whopper not to Pottle.
1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.138
Player: 47.54% (G:7.66% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 52.46% (G:14.04% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.150..-0.127) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.257 (-0.119)
Player: 43.27% (G:11.65% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 56.73% (G:15.64% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.271..-0.244) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/7 eq:-0.270 (-0.131)
Player: 44.30% (G:10.35% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 55.70% (G:18.07% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.283..-0.256) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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