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  • The woes of an inflexible position

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 22 09:22:05 2022
    XGID=--aaC-C-D-B-ba-A--bdb-b-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X | +---+
    | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 22 15:17:41 2022
    On 8/22/2022 9:22 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--aaC-C-D-B-ba-A--bdb-b-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | O     X        O |   | O  O     O     X |
     |                O |   | O  O     O     X |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X     X          | +---+
     | O     X     X    |   | X     X          | | 2 |
     | O     X     X    |   | X     X  O  O    | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 145  O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65
    What's the game plan? It's not to race since we're behind. 15/4 is
    safe, but inflexible.

    Loose hits are problematic since we're outboarded, but 15/10 8/2* looks playable, as does 15/9 8/3*.

    Hittins two seems too loose as does slotting the five point since
    there's no good six to be had.

    I'll hit loose on the two and safety the outfield blot. The three is
    usually the better hit, but with her strong board 15/10 should lose
    fewer gammons.

    15/10 8/2*


    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 24 07:46:54 2022
    XGID=--aaC-C-D-B-ba-A--bdb-b-B-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X | +---+
    | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 65

    XG hits twice. It does lose more gammons than hitting once, but it
    also wins more games and gammons. The safer plays don't have as much upside---even if X is not hit back, they don't do a lot to solve X's
    problems.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/3* 8/2* eq:-0.283
    Player: 36.95% (G:15.63% B:0.94%)
    Opponent: 63.05% (G:28.37% B:4.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.294..-0.272) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 15/9 8/3* eq:-0.380 (-0.098)
    Player: 33.00% (G:11.39% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 67.00% (G:25.84% B:2.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.390..-0.371) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 15/10 8/2* eq:-0.417 (-0.134)
    Player: 30.65% (G:9.94% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 69.35% (G:22.83% B:1.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.427..-0.408) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)