...because it's DMP.

XGID=aB---bCDC-b-aa---A-bbBbb--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 152 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/21/2022 10:34 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

...because it's DMP.

XGID=aB---bCDC-b-aa---A-bbBbb--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | O           X    |   | O  O  X  O  O    |
 |                  |   | O  O  X  O  O    |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                X |   |                  |
 |             X  X |   | X                |
 |       O     X  X |   | X  O           X |
 | O     O     X  X |   | X  O           X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 131  O: 152 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 62

Yes, that *is* the best reason to make the DMP play.

Sending a second checker to the roof looks sound, and hitting is usually
more favored at DMP. What else is there? We could make the 15 point,
but I'm not seeing that as much of an asset. 17/9 looks playable, but I
prefer the more aggressive hit. I don't see how slotting a deep
homeboard point would be the right idea so I'll stick with the hit.

21/13*


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aB---bCDC-b-aa---A-bbBbb--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 152 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 62

Hitting and not worrying about getting gammoned because you're leaving
too many blots is typically the right idea at DMP. But in this
position, XG says that the safe play is the better winning strategy.
X has a big lead in the pip count and is outboarded. Ironically,
the money rollout below says that hitting is a more viable option for
money because of the extra gammon wins.

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 17/15 eq:+0.222
Player: 61.09% (G:21.82% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 38.91% (G:9.26% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.219..+0.224) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/13* eq:+0.161 (-0.061)
Player: 58.03% (G:29.53% B:1.04%)
Opponent: 41.97% (G:11.16% B:1.23%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.158..+0.163) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=aB---bCDC-b-aa---A-bbBbb--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 17/15 eq:+0.445
Player: 61.63% (G:15.53% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 38.37% (G:9.67% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.436..+0.455) - [90.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/13* eq:+0.435 (-0.010)
Player: 58.75% (G:24.03% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 41.25% (G:11.53% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.423..+0.447) - [9.2%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)