X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O X X |
| O O X | | O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/19/2022 8:31 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     O     O  X |   | O     O     X  X |
 |       O     O  X |   | O     O          |
 |             O    |   | O     O          |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X                |
 | O                |   | X  X     X     X |
 | O                |   | X  X     X  X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 134  O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

We want to cover the blot on the deuce, so bring a second builder into
range with 13/7. Then slotting the GP looks sound - if we get hit we
have a strong chance to make that anchor.

23/20 13/7.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Can't speak for anyone else. But I would request the XGID. That's what I would do.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/19/2022 10:44 AM, [email protected] wrote:

Can't speak for anyone else. But I would request the XGID. That's what I would do.

Sorry, that was an unintentional cut-and-paste error.

XGID=aBAB-BC-----cA-b-cBc-c-AA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O X X |
| O O X | | O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, August 20, 2022 at 2:53:35 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 8/19/2022 10:44 AM, [email protected] wrote:

Can't speak for anyone else. But I would request the XGID. That's what I would do.

Sorry, that was an unintentional cut-and-paste error.

XGID=aBAB-BC-----cA-b-cBc-c-AA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O X X |
| O O X | | O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Essentially, I'm Walting here.
I did read ah..Clem's post but I took care not to read it,
until I'd made my own decision.
I agree with ah...Clem's post (on the whole), and am making the same play.
A few other (banal) comments of my own:
This looks too easy to be true [but "looks" is the operative word], and I can't find another candidate.
Maybe 13/4 or 24/18 13/10 but they both look a bit Trumpian.
The way I see it is that 13/7 is essential as an extra cover for the 2 and then we only have one sensible 3 (23/20)
I disagree that a desire to slot the GP is a big part of it -- it's just that 13/7 is essential and that's the only 3 that doesn't
ruin our position.

I wonder if this is an anti-QF problem or if XG comes up with a blinder here.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aBAB-BC-----cA-b-cBc-c-AA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O X X |
| O O X | | O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Paul might call this a "blinder," because his play (and ah_clem's) is
in double whopper territory, according to the rollout below. One
problem with 23/20 13/7 is that it disconnects X's checkers and gives
poor outfield coverage. O's hitting rolls from the bar are, on average,
more devastating for X after 23/20 13/7 than after 23/14.

1. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:+0.227
Player: 53.15% (G:22.88% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 46.85% (G:12.68% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.211..+0.242) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/10 eq:+0.094 (-0.133)
Player: 50.69% (G:20.80% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 49.31% (G:12.04% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.080..+0.109) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/20 eq:+0.087 (-0.140)
Player: 50.88% (G:20.07% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 49.12% (G:12.75% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.074..+0.099) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 23/20 13/7 eq:+0.022 (-0.205)
Player: 48.98% (G:19.74% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 51.02% (G:12.87% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.007..+0.038) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 3:33:42 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=aBAB-BC-----cA-b-cBc-c-AA-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O X X |
| O O X | | O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63
Paul might call this a "blinder," because his play (and ah_clem's) is
in double whopper territory, according to the rollout below. One
problem with 23/20 13/7 is that it disconnects X's checkers and gives
poor outfield coverage. O's hitting rolls from the bar are, on average,
more devastating for X after 23/20 13/7 than after 23/14.

1. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:+0.227
Player: 53.15% (G:22.88% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 46.85% (G:12.68% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.211..+0.242) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/10 eq:+0.094 (-0.133)
Player: 50.69% (G:20.80% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 49.31% (G:12.04% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.080..+0.109) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/20 eq:+0.087 (-0.140)
Player: 50.88% (G:20.07% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 49.12% (G:12.75% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.074..+0.099) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 23/20 13/7 eq:+0.022 (-0.205)
Player: 48.98% (G:19.74% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 51.02% (G:12.87% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.007..+0.038) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

Good lesson here. Cube position might matter a lot here.
We have access to the cube, and we might well have an efficient cube if the opponent
dances when we play 23/14 (although it's probably a take).
So we don't need the extra cover numbers so badly.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/21/2022 1:39 PM, [email protected] wrote:

Good lesson here. Cube position might matter a lot here.
We have access to the cube, and we might well have an efficient cube if the opponent
dances when we play 23/14 (although it's probably a take).
So we don't need the extra cover numbers so badly.

Cube location isn't going to change the play in a position
like this one, given that the equity differences are so huge.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)