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  • 5-away/2-away checker play

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 17 08:24:18 2022
    XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X X |
    | O X O X O | | X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 2-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 19 08:29:02 2022
    XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X X |
    | O X O X O | | X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 2-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    According to the rollouts below, the score makes a dramatic difference.
    For money, the XG rollout puts the safe 23/22 15/11 on top (although
    XG 3-ply plays 23/22 13/9*), but ATS the rollout says 23/22 15/11 is
    a whopper, and that X has to hit for the gammons. Hitting leaves a
    lot of return shots, but O has no board and her outfield points are
    stripped.

    1. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/9* eq:+0.312
    Player: 54.34% (G:15.80% B:0.69%)
    Opponent: 45.66% (G:11.66% B:1.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.304..+0.319) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/8 eq:+0.288 (-0.024)
    Player: 53.95% (G:15.44% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 46.05% (G:10.79% B:1.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.280..+0.295) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout² 23/22 15/11 eq:+0.212 (-0.100)
    Player: 56.42% (G:7.18% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 43.58% (G:6.56% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.201..+0.223) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X X |
    | O X O X O | | X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    1. Rollout¹ 23/22 15/11 eq:+0.209
    Player: 56.01% (G:9.03% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 43.99% (G:7.23% B:0.21%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.203..+0.215) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/9* eq:+0.178 (-0.032)
    Player: 53.98% (G:16.53% B:0.83%)
    Opponent: 46.02% (G:11.27% B:0.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.170..+0.185) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/8 eq:+0.174 (-0.036)
    Player: 53.52% (G:16.53% B:0.82%)
    Opponent: 46.48% (G:10.61% B:0.48%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.166..+0.181) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Aug 19 10:47:01 2022
    On 8/19/2022 8:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=----B-CbDa-BbBbA-c-e---A--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  O  X     O    |   | O           X    |
     | X  O        O    |   | O                |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O  X        X  O |   | X     X          |
     | O  X     O  X  O |   | X     X          |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 144  O: 154 X-O: 2-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    I tried to reply to this and somehow deleted the post instead of replying.

    I'm fairly sure I would have made the safe play despite the match score.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)