XGID=aaB--CC-CA--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/14/2022 9:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aaB--CC-CA--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  O     O  O    |   | O  O  O        X |  |             O    |   | O  O  O        X |  |             O    |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X  X             |  | O           X    |   | X  X        X    |
 | O        X  X    |   | X  X        X  O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 131  O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

Making the three point seems automatic. Then 13/10 looks better than 8/5
or 6/2. What am I missing?

Oh, I see it now. 13/1*

But in a blitz the priority is point > hit > build > escape IIRC.

So I'll make the three point. and bring one down from the midpoint.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aaB--CC-CA--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

Ah_clem cites a rule of thumb that I like to use: point > hit >
build > escape. Of course there are always exceptions, and
this is a position where XG prefers to hit with 13/1* rather
than make the 3pt. I'm not entirely sure what's going on. At
first I thought it had something to do with O's outfield blots,
but after checking a few variants, I no longer think that's the
key factor. It does seem to have something to do with the lack
of a good fourth 3 to play; see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 13/1* eq:+0.310
Player: 51.49% (G:36.68% B:2.98%)
Opponent: 48.51% (G:15.77% B:1.12%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.293..+0.327) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.234 (-0.076)
Player: 48.78% (G:30.69% B:2.90%)
Opponent: 51.22% (G:14.32% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.217..+0.251) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10 9/3 6/3 eq:+0.172 (-0.139)
Player: 47.85% (G:29.08% B:2.58%)
Opponent: 52.15% (G:13.84% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.155..+0.188) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aaB--BC-CB--bAa-ac-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 9/3(2) eq:+0.298
Player: 50.24% (G:31.37% B:3.08%)
Opponent: 49.76% (G:14.13% B:0.86%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.290..+0.307) - [85.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/1* eq:+0.292 (-0.007)
Player: 51.47% (G:34.85% B:3.01%)
Opponent: 48.53% (G:15.55% B:1.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.283..+0.300) - [14.6%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.279 (-0.020)
Player: 50.60% (G:31.33% B:3.02%)
Opponent: 49.40% (G:14.70% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.273..+0.284) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)