On August 5, 2022 at 6:40:12 PM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:
On 8/5/2022 9:49 AM, [email protected] wrote:
XG and you will play the position from both
sides, so the theoretical equity is zero.
Below, I'll propose a variant for a different purpose.
How much would XG have to pay you upfront
to take this prop?
I'll play if XG pays me our PR difference. Since my
PR isn't known upfront, it'll have to be calculated
after the games are played.
It must be due to my lack of experience in these
kinds of propositions that I don't understand the
goal here. What is to be earned or learned..?
You're going to play "duplicate backgammon,"....
Presumably, though, the dice are not duplicated.
Why do you presume this? I would say otherwise
that the dice needs to duplicted for fairness. For
an opponent who doesn't try to imitate the bot,
(i.e. me), seing how XG plays won't matter. In fact,
if the human player is required to move first, their
plays will diverge after a few obvious moves and it
won't matter if he gets to see how XG moves first.
Now, my proposition:
- Pick 2 from among your favorite gamblegammon
bots and make them play each other as above but
without any upfront payment.
- Let them play a large set of games, (i.e. 20,000)
from the same position(/s) using duplicated dice.
- Regardless of how the dice rolls are produced, (i.e.
from internal/external dll's, text files, online servers,
etc.), for 10,000 times let Bot-A produce them and
feed to Bot-B as manual dice rolls and for the other
10,000 let Bot-B produce them and feed to Bot-A as
manual dice rolls.
- Calculate the bots' PR's separately after each set
of 10,000 games twice: once by Bot-A and once by
Bot-B.
- Observe if each bot's all four PR's are the same or
substancially similar. Then observe if each bot's two
sets of two PR's are similarly consistent in pairs.
- Also observe if the actual games won/lost by each
bot is in line with their PR's first for each set, then
for each pair of sets and finally for all four sets.
- Report your findings to RGB. Let's see what kinds
of sick cheating shits which of your much worshipped
gamblegammon bots are...
Upfront, I bet that no such experiments will ever be
conducted, for fear of discovering somethings that
you have been comfortably in denial of thus far...
MK
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