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  • I didn't roll a 4 or a 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 4 09:48:55 2022
    XGID=-a--A-E-B--aeD---cBd-a---A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O |
    | X O X | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 163 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Aug 6 11:57:46 2022
    On 8/4/2022 9:48 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--A-E-B--aeD---cBd-a---A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  X |   | O     O          |
     | X           O  X |   | O                |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  | X |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O  O        X    |   | X     X        O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 163  O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    I'll go with the distraction play / tempo hit. bar/20 4/1*. Not sure
    if it's better than bar/22 13/8.



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 7 10:06:30 2022
    XGID=-a--A-E-B--aeD---cBd-a---A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O |
    | X O X | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 163 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    Like ah_clem, I tried hitting 4/1*, but XG prefers to keep the 4pt
    slotted. Apparently it thinks that's more valuable than the tempo.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/8 eq:-0.114
    Player: 47.14% (G:12.06% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 52.86% (G:13.60% B:0.52%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.121..-0.107) - [97.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/10 eq:-0.124 (-0.010)
    Player: 46.84% (G:11.60% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 53.16% (G:13.35% B:0.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.132..-0.117) - [2.2%]

    3. Rollout² Bar/20 4/1* eq:-0.184 (-0.070)
    Player: 44.95% (G:10.50% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 55.05% (G:12.61% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.200..-0.168) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)