XGID=-B-aCbC-C-B-----a-Bcbbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/1/2022 11:36 AM, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-B-aCbC-C-B-----a-Bcbbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

I count 11 sots after breaking the bar point and X is in very good shape
when missed. I'd it loose if there was something reasonable to do with
the four. But as I"m not seeing anything along those lines it's 18/13
18/14.



--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-B-aCbC-C-B-----a-Bcbbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

With O's killer board, 18/14 18/13 apparently volunteers too many shots.
See the variant below, where O's blot has been moved from X's 3pt to
X's 2pt.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:+0.072
Player: 52.19% (G:5.69% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 47.81% (G:13.14% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.060..+0.084) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/14 18/13 eq:-0.050 (-0.122)
Player: 49.37% (G:3.82% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 50.63% (G:18.89% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.058..-0.042) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XG 3-ply, XG 4-ply, and XGR++ all favor 18/14 18/13 here.


XGID=-Ba-CbC-C-B-----a-Bcbbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:+0.075
Player: 52.18% (G:6.23% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 47.82% (G:13.71% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.064..+0.087) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/14 18/13 eq:+0.054 (-0.022)
Player: 52.44% (G:3.44% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 47.56% (G:16.30% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.044..+0.063) - [0.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)