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  • How modest am I?

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 30 11:10:34 2022
    Here, I passed XG's double.
    But am I humbly and courageously confessing to an
    egregious backgammon error?
    Or am I shamelessly bragging about a truly excellent play?

    (The fact that XG should cube seems too obvious to be worth
    stating.)

    Paul

    XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sun Jul 31 05:57:04 2022
    On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:10:35 PM UTC-4, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I think this is a take. XG's 8/6/5/4 formation is very strong and
    there is also a tenth checker (almost) in the zone, but you have
    only one checker back, and you have made your bar point. It does
    give me pause that you have another blot that could get picked
    up, but it's currently not subject to a direct shot.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Jul 31 08:31:43 2022
    On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:57:05 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:10:35 PM UTC-4, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    I think this is a take. XG's 8/6/5/4 formation is very strong and
    there is also a tenth checker (almost) in the zone, but you have
    only one checker back, and you have made your bar point. It does
    give me pause that you have another blot that could get picked
    up, but it's currently not subject to a direct shot.

    Yes, but quite a thin take. My drop cost me about 0.055.
    Good analysis.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sun Jul 31 11:12:53 2022
    On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 4:31:44 PM UTC+1, [email protected] wrote:
    On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:57:05 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:10:35 PM UTC-4, [email protected] wrote:
    XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    I think this is a take. XG's 8/6/5/4 formation is very strong and
    there is also a tenth checker (almost) in the zone, but you have
    only one checker back, and you have made your bar point. It does
    give me pause that you have another blot that could get picked
    up, but it's currently not subject to a direct shot.
    Yes, but quite a thin take. My drop cost me about 0.055.
    Good analysis.

    Paul

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 67.88% (G:27.02% B:0.64%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.12% (G:5.50% B:0.26%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 67.83% (G:29.86% B:0.61%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.17% (G:6.14% B:0.29%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.577, Double=+1.194

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.790 (-0.153)
    Double/Take: +0.942
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.058)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.778..+0.801)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.926..+0.959)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 49 minutes 47 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)