I wonder whether Paul would refer to this as an action double,
or whether he thinks my subject line is a misnomer.

XGID=-b--a-EBDA-Ac----Abda-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:04:17 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

I wonder whether Paul would refer to this as an action double,
or whether he thinks my subject line is a misnomer.

XGID=-b--a-EBDA-Ac----Abda-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Neither.
I think that you have a friend whose name is Ms. Nomer, and she chose the subject line.
ND/T for me here. Obviously the on-roll player is a big fave here, but I don't see many market losers.
The opponent has plenty of play. There's quite a good adage, I think, about not doubling when you
only have a one-point board. But that does have plenty of exceptions. ND/T.

Paul

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On 7/30/2022 9:04 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

I wonder whether Paul would refer to this as an action double,
or whether he thinks my subject line is a misnomer.

XGID=-b--a-EBDA-Ac----Abda-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |             X  O |   | O  O     O     X |  |                O |   | O        O       |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |             X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X  X |   | X              O |
 | O  X     X  X  X |   | X     O        O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 137  O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Looks like an action double to me. Ahead in the race and arguably with
better position implies ship it. I'm seeing lots of good rolls that
should lead to a market loss, so ship it.

X has no board, four blots, and a man on the ace, so the take seems
fairly clear.

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* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b--a-EBDA-Ac----Abda-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This looked like an action double to me. Thirteen checkers
in the zone! A twenty-pip lead in the race and another blot I
might hit right away. But Paul's instincts are better than mine;
XG says this is a big ND. Even if X carries out one of his threats
(hitting, making a point), he may not lose his market. He has no
board, and O is anchored (albeit on the 1pt), so she is a favorite
to set up a decent defense. X's stragglers are also somewhat
disconnected from the rest of his army, giving O counterplay.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 59.27% (G:21.54% B:2.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.73% (G:11.78% B:0.61%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.29% (G:21.22% B:2.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.71% (G:11.71% B:0.57%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.420
Double/Take: +0.269 (-0.151)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.580)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.1%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.404..+0.436)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.248..+0.290)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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