XGID=-B--ABDAAb--dB---bBdaa-a--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O O | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/27/2022 7:20 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-B--ABDAAb--dB---bBdaa-a--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2   O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  X |   | O  O  O     O    |
 | X           O  X |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X                |  | O                |   | X                |  | O        O       |   | X  X           X |
 | O        O  X  X |   | X  X  X        X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 117  O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

I suppose the idea here is to use the three blots in her home board as
an excuse to run off the eighteen point. Looks sound. Is it better than
simply building the board with 8/4 6/3? Not sure.

If X runs, 61 62 and 63 gives him only one blot to shoot at from the
bar. The other 12 hitting numbers leave at least two and often three
homeboard blots after a hit. And if missed X is well poised to easily
win the race.

"Don't volunteer a shot in a holding game" is sage advice. Probably
should be "Don't volunteer a shot in a holding game unless you're almost
gin if missed and you have lots of counterplay if you are."

So, I'll pay now with 18/13.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-B--ABDAAb--dB---bBdaa-a--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O O | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

Mainly I wanted to mention that XG 3-ply plays 6/4 6/3 here (although
if you force a 3-ply evaluation of 18/13, it comes out way ahead of
6/4 6/3). XG sometimes creates what look to me like unnecessarily
blotty boards in holding games or mutual holding games, and I have
always been suspicious of such plays. This position is one small
piece of evidence that XG (at least at the 3-ply level) may
underestimate how serious a liability a blotty board is in such
positions.

1. Rollout¹ 18/13 eq:+0.464
Player: 63.25% (G:9.37% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 36.75% (G:4.89% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.454..+0.474) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/3 eq:+0.333 (-0.131)
Player: 60.24% (G:8.98% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 39.76% (G:4.32% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.323..+0.343) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)