On Sunday, July 24, 2022 at 2:38:38 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Big pass.
I don't think it's TG though (assuming non-Jacoby).
I don't think it's an "action double" because an action double means (to me) that:
1) You have a threat that you're an underdog to make.
2) Your opponent is doing fine if you miss the threat.
3) You double anyway because the threat is somewhat (though less than 50%) likely to happen,
and you hugely lose your market if so.
Here, we're favourites to hit and, even if we don't hit, we're big favourites anyway.
It seems clear that the opponent has enough play that we're not TG.
If we miss the shot, the opponent has a huge ask to overcome the race deficit and get past
our strong broken prime.
The stack on the 5 point is horrible for the opponent, giving huge containment difficulties
for the opponent if we do get hit.
I think taking would be something like a 0.3 blunder.
Let's see what the hitting probability (for the blot on our 9 point) is:
4 or 2 gives 5/9.
A combo 2 adds 1/36.
A combo 4 adds 31 which is 1/18.
Now, we need to consider nines.
33 doesn't work.
54 has already been counted.
So we only get 63 for another 1/18.
So our hitting probability is 25/36.
But pointing on the ace point blot is pretty devastating too.
Paul
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