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  • Six-prime versus six-prime

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jul 19 09:35:19 2022
    XGID=-a-BBBBCC---------cbbcbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O O X |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | |
    | X X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 89 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jul 20 10:06:11 2022
    On 7/19/2022 9:35 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-BBBBCC---------cbbcbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2   O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |                O |   | O  O  O  O  O  X |
     |                O |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
     |                O |   |       O          |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X  X |   |                  |
     |             X  X |   | X  X  X  X       |
     |             X  X |   | X  X  X  X     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 105  O: 89 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    Stick says all "normal looking" prime vs primes are takes. Where,
    presumably, he has a much better eye than the rest of us for what looks "normal".

    But this looks pretty normal to me so I'll say take. Then, O has less
    timing before she's forced to hit or break the prime, either of which
    gives great advantage to X. Lots of market losers and few bad sequences
    (e.g. big doubles for X) So I'll say it's a cube. Can't be TG.


    D/T.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jul 21 08:56:02 2022
    XGID=-a-BBBBCC---------cbbcbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O O X |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | |
    | X X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 105 O: 89 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    The rollouts below say this is a pass, but if you make a one-pip
    change, it becomes a big take.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 76.00% (G:9.78% B:0.34%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.00% (G:3.82% B:0.12%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 76.00% (G:10.61% B:0.42%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.00% (G:3.97% B:0.12%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
    Double/Take: +1.032 (+0.032)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.779..+0.796)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+1.019..+1.045)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-BBBCBC---------cbbcbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O O X |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 104 O: 89 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 71.88% (G:9.02% B:0.31%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.12% (G:4.40% B:0.16%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 71.75% (G:9.86% B:0.34%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.25% (G:4.59% B:0.16%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.662 (-0.148)
    Double/Take: +0.810
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.190)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.653..+0.672)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.795..+0.825)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)