On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 5:27:46 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=a-BABBB-A-c-bC---Accc---A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11
Lifting as many blots as possible is not usually the right mindset when you're blitzing. However, O's position is strong enough that if she
hits, then the game could turn around in a hurry. X doesn't have to
commit to a blitz here; he also has racing and priming chances, and
playing safe this turn does not preclude him from playing something
more aggressive next turn if the dice allow it.
1. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/6 3/2 eq:+0.356
Player: 63.24% (G:31.93% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 36.76% (G:8.50% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.346..+0.367) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:+0.305 (-0.052)
Player: 61.29% (G:33.74% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 38.71% (G:10.51% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.295..+0.315) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 3/2 eq:+0.283 (-0.073)
Player: 61.43% (G:30.39% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 38.57% (G:9.63% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.273..+0.293) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7 3/2 eq:+0.275 (-0.081)
Player: 60.89% (G:30.99% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 39.11% (G:9.87% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.264..+0.286) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
FWIW, my play is 24/21 3/2.
I'm not worried about safetying my 8 point checker
and I like being at the edge of the opponent's prime.
Of course, the rollout is (much) more likely to be correct than
I am, but that's my play anyway.
Paul
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