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  • 3-away/3-away cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed May 25 08:51:02 2022
    XGID=aB-BAaC----BbEb-ab-bbb----:0:0:1:00:4:4:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:4 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 117 O: 148 X-O: 4-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 26 01:23:06 2022
    25 Mayıs 2022 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 15:51:04 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
    XGID=aB-BAaC----BbEb-ab-bbb----:0:0:1:00:4:4:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:4 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 117 O: 148 X-O: 4-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    X has 3 inner points, can make the fourth and O is on the bar. I think the chance of winning a gammon is 25-30 percent. All this is enough to double the cube.
    From O’s point of view: the distribution of X in the outfield isn't perfect. His homeboard is more powerful than X has and these two factors may be a valid reason to accept the cube. I am not sure.
    But if my opponent is better than me, I wouldn't hesitate to take it OTB. Because there is a very volatile position.

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 30 10:50:17 2022
    XGID=aB-BAaC----BbEb-ab-bbb----:0:0:1:00:4:4:0:7:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:4 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O O |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 117 O: 148 X-O: 4-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    X has ten checkers in the zone and has escaped both of his back
    checkers. He has a huge 30-pip lead. I would have dropped this
    for money, and at 3-away/3-away the drop seemed even clearer.
    But XG takes this! I was amazed. It seems that O's strong board
    gives her just enough counterchances. X might not clean up his
    blot on the 4pt, and even if he does, he'll be a bit cautious of
    hitting loose because a return hit could turn the game around.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.06% (G:30.69% B:0.51%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.94% (G:8.30% B:0.56%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 63.66% (G:32.71% B:0.85%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.34% (G:8.26% B:0.65%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.717 (-0.220)
    Double/Take: +0.937
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.063)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.705..+0.729)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.917..+0.957)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)