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  • Containment cube action 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 5 08:14:44 2022
    XGID=-B-aBBBBB----------AbBbbh-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | X O X O O O |
    | | | O X O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 8 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 123 O: 50 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat May 7 19:51:07 2022
    XGID=-B-aBBBBB----------AbBbbh-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | X O X O O O |
    | | | O X O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 8 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 123 O: 50 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    With O having so many dead checkers and at risk of exposing another
    blot, I thought this one was a pass. But X also has two dead checkers
    on the 1pt, and I underestimated how bad those were. See variant.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 71.95% (G:9.85% B:0.32%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.05% (G:6.78% B:0.01%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 72.34% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.66% (G:6.33% B:0.01%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.768 (-0.079)
    Redouble/Take: +0.847
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.153)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.761..+0.775)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.837..+0.858)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--BaBBBBB----------AbBbbh-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | X O X O O O |
    | | | O X O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 8 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 50 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 77.80% (G:12.32% B:0.39%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 22.20% (G:6.71% B:0.01%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 79.13% (G:13.59% B:0.44%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 20.87% (G:7.70% B:0.02%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.878 (-0.122)
    Redouble/Take: +1.215 (+0.215)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.873..+0.884)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.205..+1.226)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 3 08:41:04 2023
    XGID=-a-B-BCBB---dB---bBbbc-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 126 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Jul 3 10:32:28 2023
    On 7/3/2023 8:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-B-BCBB---dB---bBbbc-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  X |   | O  O  O     O    |
     | X           O  X |   | O  O  O          |
     |                  |   |       O          |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X  X |   | X  X     X       |
     | O           X  X |   | X  X     X     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 126  O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    Race is even. Position is about even. O's straggler is on the ace where
    it is fairly safe for now, but with 11 in the zone I"ll give threats to X.


    That's 1 of 3 PRAT. Should imply ND/T, but X has escaped his runners
    while O has a blot on the ace. Often this is a cube, so I"ll ship it
    now since some players (including me) may miff the take.

    D/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jul 5 08:59:34 2023
    XGID=-a-B-BCBB---dB---bBbbc-a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 126 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    A straggler trapped behind a five-prime should raise alarm bells.
    But X's five-prime is a broken five-prime, not a solid five-prime,
    and he could have some difficulty getting off his bar-point anchor.
    XG says this is a clear take, but see also the variant, where O's
    blot is on her 1pt rather than her 2pt.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 70.91% (G:17.84% B:0.41%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.09% (G:6.05% B:0.20%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 71.50% (G:17.90% B:0.45%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.50% (G:6.17% B:0.24%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.830 (-0.078)
    Double/Take: +0.908
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.092)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.819..+0.840)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.893..+0.922)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-B-BCBB---dB---bBbbc--a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 126 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 72.20% (G:18.15% B:0.36%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.80% (G:5.73% B:0.15%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 73.08% (G:18.31% B:0.46%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 26.92% (G:5.98% B:0.16%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.853 (-0.136)
    Double/Take: +0.989
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.011)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.847..+0.859)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.978..+1.000)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)