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  • An effective Axelisation

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Fri Apr 29 03:46:19 2022
    In the below position, it's an obvious take, but I think it would be
    a struggle for many players to know whether to hold or to redouble.
    My pre-Isight self would actually wrongly double here.
    I would be thinking "It's similar to a four roll position and I've got an
    extra checker off. I don't like the gap but the other factors are more significant. D/T."
    However, Axel would say: "Raw pip counts 35 each. Penalise
    one player for the 5 point gap and the other play for the extra checker.
    We get 36 each. 36 + 1/6 * 36 - 36 = 6 but 5 or less is needed for
    a redouble. So hold.

    Paul


    XGID=--ABAAC------------d-ba---:1:-1:-X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel 1:00:0:4:3:0:10

    Score is X:4 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X | | 2 |
    | | | X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 35 O: 35 X-O: 4-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in 4-ply
    Player Winning Chances: 65.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.317, Double=+0.633

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.526
    Redouble/Take: +0.439 (-0.087)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.474)

    Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.5%

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Fri Apr 29 08:05:21 2022
    On 4/29/2022 6:46 AM, [email protected] wrote:
    I would be thinking "It's similar to a four roll position and I've got an extra checker off. I don't like the gap but the other factors are more significant. D/T."

    You don't need anything as sophisticated as Isight to correct the basic
    error above. This is a not a four-roll position. It's a "pips"
    position and not a "rolls" position.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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