In the below position, it's an obvious take, but I think it would be
a struggle for many players to know whether to hold or to redouble.
My pre-Isight self would actually wrongly double here.
I would be thinking "It's similar to a four roll position and I've got an
extra checker off. I don't like the gap but the other factors are more significant. D/T."
However, Axel would say: "Raw pip counts 35 each. Penalise
one player for the 5 point gap and the other play for the extra checker.
We get 36 each. 36 + 1/6 * 36 - 36 = 6 but 5 or less is needed for
a redouble. So hold.

Paul


XGID=--ABAAC------------d-ba---:1:-1:-X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel 1:00:0:4:3:0:10

Score is X:4 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 35 O: 35 X-O: 4-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 65.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.317, Double=+0.633

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.526
Redouble/Take: +0.439 (-0.087)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.474)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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On 4/29/2022 6:46 AM, [email protected] wrote:

I would be thinking "It's similar to a four roll position and I've got an extra checker off. I don't like the gap but the other factors are more significant. D/T."

You don't need anything as sophisticated as Isight to correct the basic
error above. This is a not a four-roll position. It's a "pips"
position and not a "rolls" position.

---
Tim Chow

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