XGID=---abBEBB---cB-Aab-bbb--A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---abBEBB---cB-Aab-bbb--A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

Of the four plays rolled out below, I considered three OTB, but did not consider XG's preferred play of 24/22 15/13 5/3*(2). Switching the 5pt
for the 3pt when O has a 4pt anchor is an unusual play, but becomes more understandable when we recognize that one of X's top priorities is to
escape his back checker, and a tempo hit is useful toward that end. But
see also the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 15/13 5/3*(2) eq:+0.003
Player: 50.07% (G:13.19% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 49.93% (G:12.57% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.011..+0.017) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:-0.053 (-0.056)
Player: 48.20% (G:12.58% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 51.80% (G:11.31% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.066..-0.040) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/3*(2) eq:-0.093 (-0.096)
Player: 46.80% (G:14.85% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 53.20% (G:12.68% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.108..-0.077) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) eq:-0.119 (-0.122)
Player: 46.36% (G:13.17% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 53.64% (G:12.74% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.134..-0.105) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---abBEBB---cB-A-b-cbb--A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 15/13 5/3*(2) eq:+0.064
Player: 51.59% (G:12.84% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 48.41% (G:12.79% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.051..+0.077) - [82.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:+0.055 (-0.009)
Player: 51.66% (G:12.07% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 48.34% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.043..+0.066) - [14.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) eq:+0.048 (-0.016)
Player: 51.55% (G:12.94% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 48.45% (G:12.62% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.035..+0.062) - [3.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release


---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-d-Ba-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

10 Haziran 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 15:26:40 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-d-Ba-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

There is nothing to discuss about making the 2 point with one of the twos. With the remaining 3 twos, 13/7 doesn't seem bad and the O's weak board supports this move, but the 6-1,6-3,6-5 and 66 jokers are dangerous. With 13/11, 13/9, it's not a bad idea
to spread out in the outfield and not to leave a direct shot. This way X will have plenty of opportunity to hit back even if get hit.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-d-Ba-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

XG favors 13/7 4/2. Certainly if X successfully makes his bar point,
it will turn the thumbscrews on O, who will then almost certainly
crunch while X saunters around the board. Of course, things could go
wrong if O rolls a couple of quick sixes, but even without the blot in
O's board (see variant), XG slightly prefers 13/7.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 4/2 eq:+0.933
Player: 83.43% (G:33.33% B:2.72%)
Opponent: 16.57% (G:3.42% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.926..+0.940) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 4/2 eq:+0.885 (-0.047)
Player: 82.13% (G:31.00% B:2.85%)
Opponent: 17.87% (G:3.02% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.877..+0.894) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.853 (-0.080)
Player: 81.57% (G:29.28% B:2.58%)
Opponent: 18.43% (G:2.67% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.847..+0.859) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.850 (-0.083)
Player: 81.30% (G:29.99% B:2.77%)
Opponent: 18.70% (G:3.02% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.843..+0.857) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq:+0.848 (-0.085)
Player: 81.10% (G:30.02% B:2.97%)
Opponent: 18.90% (G:2.98% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.841..+0.855) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-e-B--b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 4/2 eq:+0.882
Player: 82.53% (G:30.87% B:2.24%)
Opponent: 17.47% (G:3.11% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.875..+0.889) - [98.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 4/2 eq:+0.871 (-0.012)
Player: 82.31% (G:29.57% B:2.50%)
Opponent: 17.69% (G:2.92% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.864..+0.878) - [1.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.870 (-0.013)
Player: 82.27% (G:28.82% B:2.62%)
Opponent: 17.73% (G:2.34% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.863..+0.876) - [0.4%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.841 (-0.041)
Player: 81.11% (G:29.34% B:2.69%)
Opponent: 18.89% (G:2.87% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.835..+0.848) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq:+0.841 (-0.042)
Player: 80.83% (G:29.85% B:2.82%)
Opponent: 19.17% (G:2.95% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.834..+0.847) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/2 eq:+0.827 (-0.055)
Player: 80.58% (G:29.28% B:2.60%)
Opponent: 19.42% (G:2.93% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.820..+0.834) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--A-BCBbCB-a-B-a-babbbb---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--A-BCBbCB-a-B-a-babbbb---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

The obvious play is to hit with 13/11*, and then cover the blot on
the 2pt. XG agrees, except that it says I did it the wrong way.

1. Rollout¹ 13/11*(2) 4/2(2) eq:+0.550
Player: 75.38% (G:13.42% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 24.62% (G:3.06% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.544..+0.556) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11* 8/2 eq:+0.442 (-0.108)
Player: 69.35% (G:21.10% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 30.65% (G:6.65% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.436..+0.449) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)