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  • A claim for damages

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Sun Apr 24 07:14:56 2022
    I wrongly dropped the below, using Isight, but the drop appears wrong.
    However, if I was operating pre-Axelishly, using my own knowledge
    and experience, I would have dropped anyway.
    So maybe my claim for compensation should be denied. Before I used
    Isight, my thinking would be this:
    "A pure 4 roll vs 4 roll position is a slim take. It's close to what we have here, but is it better or worse? I have some ugly gaps and I'm a pip down. I'll pass." I wouldn't know the EPC, but even if I did, it wouldn't
    seem like take territory.

    BTW, I do make fun non-financial bets sometimes. They work like this:
    The winner of the bet picks a pdf or URL available online
    that is interesting to the winner, and the loser of the bet is obligated to read the material.
    Thus, if you win enough bets, you force other people to read up on stuff
    that you're interested in, which I think is quite rewarding.

    Paul


    XGID=--BD-A---------------bcaa-:4:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X | | 16|
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 20 O: 21 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 16, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 75.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.507, Double=+1.013

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.793 (-0.140)
    Redouble/Take: +0.933
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.067)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.791..+0.795)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+0.930..+0.935)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 2.3 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sun Apr 24 17:58:19 2022
    "[email protected]" <[email protected]> writes:

    I wouldn't know the EPC, but even if I did, it wouldn't
    seem like take territory.

    [...]

    XGID=--BD-A---------------bcaa-:4:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X | | 16|
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 20 O: 21 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 16, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    Just to explore what you might get with the (abandonned, because much
    worse than the real Isight method) EPC approximation from my article
    (page 20):

    EPC(X) = 20 + 5 + 2*1 + 1*1 + 1*3 - 1 = 30 (exact 30.86)
    EPC(O) = 21 + 5 + 2*0 + 1*2 + 1*4 - 0 = 32 (exact 31.94)

    Point of last take is:

    30 + 30/8.167 - 3 = 30.67 < 32 => Drop

    Even with exact EPCs, the point of last take is:

    30.86 + 30.86/8.167 - 3 = 31.67 < 31.94 => Drop

    That's how it goes ...

    Axel

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Sun Apr 24 09:28:13 2022
    On Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 4:58:22 PM UTC+1, Axel Reichert wrote:
    "[email protected]" <[email protected]> writes:

    I wouldn't know the EPC, but even if I did, it wouldn't
    seem like take territory.
    [...]
    XGID=--BD-A---------------bcaa-:4:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | | | X X | | 16|
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 20 O: 21 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 16, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    Just to explore what you might get with the (abandonned, because much
    worse than the real Isight method) EPC approximation from my article
    (page 20):

    EPC(X) = 20 + 5 + 2*1 + 1*1 + 1*3 - 1 = 30 (exact 30.86)
    EPC(O) = 21 + 5 + 2*0 + 1*2 + 1*4 - 0 = 32 (exact 31.94)

    Point of last take is:

    30 + 30/8.167 - 3 = 30.67 < 32 => Drop

    Even with exact EPCs, the point of last take is:

    30.86 + 30.86/8.167 - 3 = 31.67 < 31.94 => Drop

    That's how it goes ...

    Axel

    The only way anyone can understand that this is a take is if they can somehow realise that the winning probability for the roller is < 78%.
    Since it's quite a lot less --- approx 75%, I would expect Stick and his friends to
    correctly take.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)