XGID=--ABcBDBB---a------bbbcbB-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O | +---+
| X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--ABcBDBB---a------bbbcbB-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O | +---+
| X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

I played 24/13 here. Maybe someone can explain to me the difference
between this position and the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1 eq:-0.436
Player: 33.50% (G:8.67% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 66.50% (G:30.70% B:1.29%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.445..-0.428) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:-0.507 (-0.071)
Player: 30.39% (G:7.09% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 69.61% (G:29.10% B:0.89%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.515..-0.499) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/2 7/1 eq:-0.640 (-0.204)
Player: 23.60% (G:5.13% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 76.40% (G:23.46% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.645..-0.634) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/3 8/2 eq:-0.655 (-0.219)
Player: 22.72% (G:4.76% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 77.28% (G:22.38% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.662..-0.648) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--ABcBDBB---a------bbcbbB-:1:1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O | +---+
| X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:-0.500
Player: 30.65% (G:6.74% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 69.35% (G:28.23% B:0.85%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.508..-0.492) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1 eq:-0.551 (-0.051)
Player: 30.37% (G:7.69% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 69.63% (G:33.80% B:1.47%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.561..-0.542) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-Ba-AbEC-----C-b-b-bbbbA--:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X O X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 1:52:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-Ba-AbEC-----C-b-b-bbbbA--:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X O X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Yes, in my opinion.
Not at all a QF play but I would run with 23/14 looking forward to a cube turn if the opponent fails
to hit a blot.
I'd love to know why such an obvious play is wrong (which it must be or you wouldn't post it).

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-Ba-AbEC-----C-b-b-bbbbA--:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X O X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

XG says that 23/14 is the DMP play but loses too many gammons.

PoH doesn't solve either of X's two major problems (his two blots)
and is way behind in the rollout.

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.202
Player: 37.04% (G:8.50% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 62.96% (G:16.57% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.209..-0.196) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:-0.266 (-0.063)
Player: 38.84% (G:5.68% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 61.16% (G:25.98% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.272..-0.259) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/2* 6/2 eq:-0.430 (-0.228)
Player: 32.39% (G:7.57% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 67.61% (G:26.38% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.439..-0.422) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
DMP
---

XGID=-Ba-AbEC-----C-b-b-bbbbA--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X O X |
| X | | X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 135 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:-0.245
Player: 37.77% (G:8.91% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 62.23% (G:22.56% B:2.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.249..-0.240) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4

XGID=-b---BE-C---eC---a-cbb--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b---BE-C---eC---a-cbb--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

I didn't run because I was afraid of getting hit, and 8/2 6/2 seemed to
be a constructive alternative. But X is ahead in the race and O does
not have much material in the zone for attacking. See the variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.130
Player: 47.14% (G:14.61% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 52.86% (G:17.65% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.144..-0.117) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.227 (-0.096)
Player: 44.05% (G:15.63% B:1.28%)
Opponent: 55.95% (G:19.31% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.241..-0.213) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9 eq:-0.339 (-0.208)
Player: 42.78% (G:13.87% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 57.22% (G:22.05% B:1.26%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.353..-0.324) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b---BE-C---dC---a-ccb--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.275
Player: 43.32% (G:14.82% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 56.68% (G:20.78% B:1.19%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.284..-0.265) - [84.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.282 (-0.007)
Player: 44.68% (G:12.63% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 55.32% (G:22.38% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.293..-0.271) - [15.9%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)