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  • I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator

    From [email protected]@21:1/5 to All on Sat Mar 26 01:22:28 2022
    In the position below, I found the play clear.
    However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
    I think most players would prefer my position,
    and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.

    How am I acting as an unreliable narrator?
    There are (at least) two sources of unreliability as follows:
    1) I haven't done a rollout.
    2) Maybe I'm wrong about what people would expect and
    everyone prefers XG's position after my play.

    Mr. Unrelliable

    XGID=aDDBA-B---b--B-----bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:64:6:0:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:6 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 60 O: 97 X-O: 6-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 64

    1. 4-ply 13/9 13/7 eq:-0.078
    Player: 55.65% (G:5.82% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 44.35% (G:21.08% B:1.35%)

    2. 4-ply 13/3 eq:-0.122 (-0.043)
    Player: 50.23% (G:4.82% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 49.77% (G:13.84% B:0.42%)

    3. 1-ply 13/7 6/2 eq:-1.390 (-1.312)
    Player: 20.39% (G:1.90% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 79.61% (G:65.61% B:5.26%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sat Mar 26 17:07:45 2022
    On 3/26/2022 4:22 AM, [email protected] wrote:
    In the position below, I found the play clear.
    However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
    I think most players would prefer my position,
    and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.

    Very interesting position. If the cube were centered then the
    rollout below suggests that it would be a borderline Kauder Paradox
    after your play.

    XGID=aDDBA-BA-Ab--------bbbbbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    | | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X X |
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    Pip count X: 50 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    O on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 44.05% (G:19.48% B:1.19%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 55.95% (G:4.88% B:0.00%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 44.39% (G:21.02% B:1.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 55.61% (G:5.22% B:0.00%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.039, Double=+0.116

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: -0.278 (-0.002)
    Double/Beaver: -0.276
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.276)

    Best Cube action: Double / Beaver

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Huge
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (-0.278..-0.278)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (-0.282..-0.270)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From [email protected]@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Mar 26 16:36:38 2022
    On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 9:07:50 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 3/26/2022 4:22 AM, [email protected] wrote:
    In the position below, I found the play clear.
    However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
    I think most players would prefer my position,
    and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.
    Very interesting position. If the cube were centered then the
    rollout below suggests that it would be a borderline Kauder Paradox
    after your play.

    XGID=aDDBA-BA-Ab--------bbbbbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    | | | O O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X X X |
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    Pip count X: 50 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    O on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 44.05% (G:19.48% B:1.19%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 55.95% (G:4.88% B:0.00%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 44.39% (G:21.02% B:1.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 55.61% (G:5.22% B:0.00%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.039, Double=+0.116

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: -0.278 (-0.002)
    Double/Beaver: -0.276
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.276)

    Best Cube action: Double / Beaver

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Huge
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (-0.278..-0.278)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (-0.282..-0.270)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    In practice, it's probably quite a big double because the opponent might not beaver.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)