"
[email protected]" <
[email protected]> writes:
XGID=--CBCB-------------cabb-a-:3:1:1:00:1:49:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:1 O:49. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 8 |
| | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 34 O: 38 X-O: 1-49
Cube: 8, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Adjustments for X:
1 for vacant point 6
1 for 3rd checker on point 2
1 for additional checker on board
No adjustments for O.
So we have 37 versus 38.
According to my Isight formula we have X's winning chances as
80 - 37/3 + 2*(38-37) = 69.7 %
Since 68 < 69.7 < 70 < 76 we would have an initial double, but no
redouble and a clear take.
GNU Backgammon's rollout gives 69.8 %. A redouble loses 14 millipoints
of equity.
Axel
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