XGID=----a-EbC--BcDaa---c-bb--A:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X |
| O X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----a-EbC--BcDaa---c-bb--A:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X |
| O X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

I have quoted Mochy before as saying that 8/2 is "illegal in Denmark."

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=139316

In this position, an intermediate might play 8/2 quickly because
stepping into a triple shot seems like leading with the chin.
Paradoxically, a more advanced player might have more trouble with
this decision. See the variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/2 eq:-0.409
Player: 41.41% (G:9.39% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 58.59% (G:21.60% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.423..-0.396) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/17 eq:-0.500 (-0.091)
Player: 40.02% (G:6.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 59.98% (G:20.91% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.512..-0.488) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----a-EbC--BcD--aa-c-bb--A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X |
| O X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.543
Player: 38.85% (G:5.83% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 61.15% (G:21.14% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.549..-0.536) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/2 eq:-0.557 (-0.014)
Player: 37.71% (G:7.47% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 62.29% (G:20.95% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.565..-0.549) - [0.3%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---B-BCcB-B-bB-A-e-b--Aab-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/21/2022 8:34 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---B-BCcB-B-bB-A-e-b--Aab-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     X     O    |   | O        X  O  O |
 | X           O    |   | O              O |  |             O    |   |                  |
 |             O    |   |                  |
 |             O    |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                O |   | X                |  | O     X     X  O |   | X  X     X       |
 | O     X     X  O |   | X  X     X       |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 133  O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

X is ahead in the race. Does 15/8 afford more options to just bring the checkers home? Making the fifteen point is "obvious", but may be harder
to clear than simply waiting to run the straggler.

As with the last position, there's nothing "very constructive" to do
elsewhere, so I'll make the fifteen point.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---B-BCcB-B-bB-A-e-b--Aab-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

Generally speaking, the reason one Pottles is because one's last
checker is in danger of being attacked or primed. But in this
position, O's structure is weak enough that X's last checker
serves an offensive function: If X stays back, O has quite a
few blotting rolls that will give X a direct shot. If X Pottles
with 22/15, then he lets O off the hook.

1. Rollout¹ 15/8 eq:+0.435
Player: 61.36% (G:14.07% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 38.64% (G:5.80% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.423..+0.448) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/9 6/5 eq:+0.384 (-0.051)
Player: 59.67% (G:16.03% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 40.33% (G:7.57% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.371..+0.398) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/21 15/9 eq:+0.376 (-0.059)
Player: 59.85% (G:14.56% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:8.08% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.364..+0.388) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 15/9 10/9 eq:+0.350 (-0.085)
Player: 59.26% (G:15.62% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 40.74% (G:7.78% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.338..+0.363) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 22/15 eq:+0.318 (-0.117)
Player: 59.85% (G:4.23% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:2.77% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.309..+0.328) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 8:30:59 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=---B-BCcB-B-bB-A-e-b--Aab-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
Generally speaking, the reason one Pottles is because one's last
checker is in danger of being attacked or primed. But in this
position, O's structure is weak enough that X's last checker
serves an offensive function: If X stays back, O has quite a
few blotting rolls that will give X a direct shot. If X Pottles
with 22/15, then he lets O off the hook.

1. Rollout¹ 15/8 eq:+0.435
Player: 61.36% (G:14.07% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 38.64% (G:5.80% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.423..+0.448) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/9 6/5 eq:+0.384 (-0.051)
Player: 59.67% (G:16.03% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 40.33% (G:7.57% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.371..+0.398) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/21 15/9 eq:+0.376 (-0.059)
Player: 59.85% (G:14.56% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:8.08% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.364..+0.388) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 15/9 10/9 eq:+0.350 (-0.085)
Player: 59.26% (G:15.62% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 40.74% (G:7.78% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.338..+0.363) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 22/15 eq:+0.318 (-0.117)
Player: 59.85% (G:4.23% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:2.77% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.309..+0.328) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

I only quickly went through all the rolls in my head but I don't see that O has any rolls that *force him to leave a direct shot.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)