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From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 21 08:30:57 2022

XGID=-a--BbD-B---bG---b-dc-a---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| 7 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 23 08:25:37 2022

XGID=-a--BbD-B---bG---b-dc-a---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| 7 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

O's weak board allows X to play more purely than he would otherwise.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:+0.065
Player: 53.61% (G:8.06% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 46.39% (G:13.94% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.051..+0.078) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/2 eq:+0.007 (-0.057)
Player: 52.05% (G:7.50% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 47.95% (G:15.32% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.005..+0.019) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/1* eq:+0.001 (-0.063)
Player: 52.21% (G:7.39% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 47.79% (G:15.77% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.012..+0.015) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 10 07:02:01 2022

XGID=-EAaCBB-----bB---a-bbbcb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 99 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 12 09:46:39 2022

XGID=-EAaCBB-----bB---a-bbbcb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 99 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Here, I just made the DMP play of 13/10 13/7. Chris Bray might
call this a "one-roll proposition"; if this next exchange goes
well for X, then he has practically locked up the game.

Sadly for me, XG dings my play for losing too many gammons.

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.220
Player: 52.26% (G:1.75% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 47.74% (G:3.78% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.218..+0.222) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.102 (-0.118)
Player: 55.46% (G:1.27% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.69% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.100..+0.104) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
DMP
---

XGID=-EAaCBB-----bB---a-bbbcb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 99 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.100
Player: 55.02% (G:2.70% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 44.98% (G:5.26% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.098..+0.102) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout�

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 1 08:52:57 2022

XGID=-CBBCbC--B--------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 61 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 1 19:45:28 2022

On 11/1/2022 8:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-CBBCbC--B--------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                O |   | O O O O O    | +---+
|                O |   | O O O O O    | | 2 |
|                  |   |             O    | +---+
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X     X        X |
|          X       |   | X O X X X X |
|          X       |   | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 61 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

I'm only seeing two legal plays so I expect I'm 50% to get it right. Can
I perform better than a shaved monkey flipping a coin?

Playing two off the six minimizes shots but is hard to clean up. 9/4 6/2 exposes four more shots, but when missed X is almost gin. That seems to
be the way to go.'

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 3 08:57:37 2022

XGID=-CBBCbC--B--------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 61 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

This decision isn't close. Even though O's offensive structure is
as strong as it could be, the play that minimizes immediate shots
(6/2 6/1) leaves too much future shot jeopardy. Failing to bring
one more checker into X's home board also means that X will lose
slightly more gammons when things go poorly.

I did find a variant where the play that minimizes immediate shots
is slightly preferred by XG at gammon go, but it's a bit artificial.

1. Rollout¹ 9/4 6/2 eq:+0.117
Player: 59.12% (G:0.88% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 40.88% (G:3.16% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.115..+0.118) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:+0.006 (-0.110)
Player: 55.22% (G:0.76% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 44.78% (G:5.10% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.003..+0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBBBBbC---B------bbbbbc--:1:-1:1:56:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 73 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 56

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 7/2 eq:-0.007
Player: 53.09% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 46.91% (G:2.92% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.009..-0.004) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 7/1 eq:-0.044 (-0.038)
Player: 53.20% (G:0.68% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 46.80% (G:5.48% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.048..-0.041) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------------------
Variant (gammon go)
-------------------

XGID=-BBBBBbC---B------bbbbbc--:0:0:1:56:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
| X X | | O X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 73 O: 94 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 56

1. Rollout¹ 7/2 7/1 eq:+0.067
Player: 52.73% (G:0.61% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 47.27% (G:4.00% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.065..+0.069) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 7/2 eq:+0.060 (-0.007)
Player: 52.62% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 47.38% (G:2.82% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.058..+0.061) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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