XGID=---BaBC-B-B--AA--A--Accec-:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X X | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 55 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---BaBC-B-B--AA--A--Accec-:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X X | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 55 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

At this score and cube value, O has to drop more readily than
for money in non-gammonish positions like this one. I saw
this position as being very far from a double for money and
did not think about redoubling. However, XG thinks it's time
to turn the cube.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 68.58% (G:3.28% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.43% (G:11.47% B:0.15%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.41% (G:3.49% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.59% (G:12.09% B:0.24%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.683 (-0.053)
Redouble/Take: +0.737
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.263)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.676..+0.691)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.727..+0.747)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=---BaBC-B-B--AA--A--Accec-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X X | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 55 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 68.14% (G:3.54% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.86% (G:10.64% B:0.04%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.65% (G:3.77% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.35% (G:9.99% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.619
Redouble/Take: +0.530 (-0.089)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.381)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.611..+0.627)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.517..+0.543)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=a--ACBBB-----A---A-BA-bcf-:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | X X O O O |
| | | X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 43 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/25/2022 8:18 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=a--ACBBB-----A---A-BA-bcf-:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           X    |   | X  X     O  O  O |  |                  |   | X        O  O  O |  |                  |   |             O  O |  |                  |   |                O |
 |                  |   |                6 |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |       X          | +---+
 |                X |   | X  X  X          | | 2 |
 |                X |   | X  X  X  X       | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 139  O: 43 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O doesn't lose many gammons, so her takepoint is something like 24%,
which she looks to have due to the race. Are there market losers? Not
really seeing any. If there were any gammon chances I'd hold, and
perhaps it's a hold here since O may turn this around quickly.

But I'd ship it. Some will pass, and it may even be a pass.

R/T

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=a--ACBBB-----A---A-BA-bcf-:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | X X O O O |
| | | X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 43 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O has only three checkers off, so X needs to double well before
he closes out O, but I judged that I wasn't going to lose my
market unless I made a five-prime and O danced, so I decided
not to double. According to XG, my reasoning would have been
roughly correct for money, but what I had neglected was that
ATS, O's gammon value on a 4-cube is low, so X doesn't have to
worry as much about being gammoned, and should double more
aggressively in containment positions such as this one.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 73.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.49% (G:11.66% B:0.34%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.75% (G:11.87% B:0.56%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.825 (-0.104)
Redouble/Take: +0.930
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.070)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.819..+0.831)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.921..+0.939)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=a--ACBBB-----A---A-BA-bcf-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | X X O O O |
| | | X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 43 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 73.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.07% (G:11.22% B:0.13%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.63% (G:10.89% B:0.13%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.742
Redouble/Take: +0.665 (-0.076)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.258)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.8%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.734..+0.749)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.654..+0.677)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)