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  • Some kind of cube action 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 14 08:55:25 2022
    XGID=--aBBBC-----bB-a-c-gB-Ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X O |
    | X O | | O X X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 7 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 16 08:25:46 2022
    XGID=--aBBBC-----bB-a-c-gB-Ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X O |
    | X O | | O X X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 7 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    It didn't occur to me that X might be too good here. X is 25 pips
    behind, O is not on the bar, and X has only a four-point board.
    There are plenty of ways for X to regain his market in the next turn.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 73.82% (G:34.72% B:1.59%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 26.18% (G:5.94% B:0.22%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 74.20% (G:35.41% B:1.75%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.80% (G:5.82% B:0.24%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +1.010
    Double/Take: +1.386 (+0.377)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.010)

    Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
    Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.999..+1.020)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.369..+1.404)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jul 6 07:59:33 2023
    XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X X | | X X O |
    | O X X X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Jul 6 12:52:45 2023
    On 7/6/2023 7:59 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  O          |
     | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  O        O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 132  O: 167 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    Move X's runner and one of the checkers from the six point to the
    midpoint and the rule of fours would apply. Assuming the pipcount stays
    the same, it would be D/P.

    But X still has to spring the runner and O has a "stinger" which
    complicates the bear in. That seems to be enough to push it to a take.

    D/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

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  • From Renan Moritz@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jul 6 12:48:42 2023
    Same analysis of the last position!
    D/P, but wouldn't be surprised if it is a take

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