On Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 12:59:38 AM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
On Friday, February 11, 2022 at 4:19:15 PM UTC-5, [email protected] wrote:
XGID=--aaBBBB------b-acbbDabB-A:0:0:1:00:3:6:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:3 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O | | O X O O X |
| O O O | | O X O X |
| O | | X |
| | | X |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 195 O: 136 X-O: 3-6
Cube: 1
X on roll, do you prefer X or O?
Do you prefer X or O here?
To clarify, I am talking about whether you prefer X's or O's position.
I'm not talking about the merits or demerits of being a bot, as
opposed to being me.
Paul
O, clearly.
Stick
I'll give you 66.7% on this one, Stick.
Yes, O is a favourite by approx 0.16 according to a rollout (which I didn't keep I'm afraid).
Yes, 0.16 is a clear margin -- it isn't close.
However, another interpretation of "clearly" is "obviously".
But this wasn't obvious to Tim or me -- I also (wrongly) thought that X was an equity favourite.
I guess it's a matter of experience -- knowing the ways each side wins or loses or gets gammoned,
and figuring out what happens overall.
With a lot of skill in this position, it might make a good prop against a non-expert if the non-expert is
invited to pick their own side -- they might well also pick X and give you 0.16 equity upfront.
If they pick O, play just one game. If they pick X, invite them to play again and again until they
show a preference for O.
Paul
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