XGID=-A--a-D-Da--bE---e-d--b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-A--a-D-Da--bE---e-d--b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

Typically, in the early game, if you have an extra spare on the 8pt and
you roll 11, then 8/7(2) 6/5(2) is the best play, making a four-prime.
Here, the situation is slightly unusual, since O has escaped one checker
and her straggler is on X's 4pt. That means the four-prime is not as
effective as it typically is, and there's also the option of PoH. XG
strongly favors PoH even though it gives O a direct shot at X's blot on
the 1pt. However, if we move a spare from X's midpoint to X's 8pt, then
the rollout indicates a toss-up (see variant below).

1. Rollout¹ 6/4*(2) eq:-0.264
Player: 43.75% (G:10.99% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 56.25% (G:16.40% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.277..-0.252) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.356 (-0.091)
Player: 40.71% (G:9.58% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 59.29% (G:13.76% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.366..-0.345) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.389 (-0.125)
Player: 39.85% (G:9.33% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 60.15% (G:13.57% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.401..-0.378) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-A--a-D-Ea--bD---e-d--b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 6/4*(2) eq:-0.194
Player: 45.32% (G:11.41% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 54.68% (G:14.38% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.201..-0.188) - [70.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.197 (-0.002)
Player: 44.43% (G:10.73% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 55.57% (G:11.27% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.203..-0.191) - [29.4%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

Usually in a blitz, making home-board points is a high priority,
and escaping the back checkers is a low priority. So after 8/5,
I played 9/3 6/3. However, XG says that's a whopper, and that
it is mandatory to play 8/5 23/20(2) 13/10. This surprised me,
because O's broken prime didn't look particularly formidable to
me, but it is true that X does not have a lot of spare pips to
play after 8/5 9/3 6/3. For comparison, see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+1.112
Player: 79.84% (G:63.41% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 20.16% (G:4.56% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.106..+1.118) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 8/5(2) eq:+1.013 (-0.099)
Player: 77.94% (G:58.47% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 22.06% (G:4.65% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.007..+1.019) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/20 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+1.008 (-0.104)
Player: 77.06% (G:62.15% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 22.94% (G:6.77% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.001..+1.014) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.999 (-0.113)
Player: 76.78% (G:60.72% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 23.22% (G:5.31% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.991..+1.007) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-cb-b-B-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 24/21(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+0.979
Player: 76.28% (G:60.89% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 23.72% (G:6.18% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.975..+0.983) - [95.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.975 (-0.004)
Player: 76.05% (G:60.88% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 23.95% (G:6.52% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.971..+0.978) - [5.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 8/5 eq:+0.922 (-0.057)
Player: 74.76% (G:60.62% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.24% (G:8.44% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.919..+0.926) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+0.910 (-0.070)
Player: 74.35% (G:59.43% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.65% (G:7.57% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.906..+0.913) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

5 Mayıs 2022 Perşembe tarihinde saat 15:15:03 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33
Usually in a blitz, making home-board points is a high priority,
and escaping the back checkers is a low priority. So after 8/5,
I played 9/3 6/3. However, XG says that's a whopper, and that
it is mandatory to play 8/5 23/20(2) 13/10. This surprised me,
because O's broken prime didn't look particularly formidable to
me, but it is true that X does not have a lot of spare pips to
play after 8/5 9/3 6/3. For comparison, see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+1.112
Player: 79.84% (G:63.41% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 20.16% (G:4.56% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.106..+1.118) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 8/5(2) eq:+1.013 (-0.099)
Player: 77.94% (G:58.47% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 22.06% (G:4.65% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.007..+1.019) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/20 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+1.008 (-0.104)
Player: 77.06% (G:62.15% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 22.94% (G:6.77% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.001..+1.014) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.999 (-0.113)
Player: 76.78% (G:60.72% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 23.22% (G:5.31% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.991..+1.007) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-cb-b-B-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33
1. Rollout¹ 24/21(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+0.979
Player: 76.28% (G:60.89% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 23.72% (G:6.18% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.975..+0.983) - [95.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.975 (-0.004)
Player: 76.05% (G:60.88% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 23.95% (G:6.52% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.971..+0.978) - [5.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 8/5 eq:+0.922 (-0.057)
Player: 74.76% (G:60.62% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.24% (G:8.44% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.919..+0.926) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+0.910 (-0.070)
Player: 74.35% (G:59.43% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.65% (G:7.57% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.906..+0.913) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

First of all, thanks for sharing. I disagree that escaping the back checker is a low priority in a blitz. There are two different dice to escape, 5 and 3 in the original position, whereas in the variant this number is three. In summary, I think escaping
the back checker is important

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 5/6/2022 6:09 AM, [email protected] wrote:

First of all, thanks for sharing. I disagree that escaping the back checker is a low priority in a blitz. There are two different dice to escape, 5 and 3 in the original position, whereas in the variant this number is three. In summary, I think

escaping the back checker is important

In this particular position, I agree with you. X does not have a
lot of time to roll a 5 or a 3, and risks crunching. When I said
that escaping the back checkers is a low priority in a blitz, I
meant that as a general principle that is usually true. Even in
this position, it doesn't take much of a modification to get the
computer to prefer making the 3pt to escaping. See the variant
below for example.

XGID=bBB--AC-AAA-cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+1.033
Player: 77.67% (G:62.03% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 22.33% (G:5.11% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.025..+1.040) - [98.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+1.022 (-0.011)
Player: 78.06% (G:58.76% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 21.94% (G:4.72% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.015..+1.028) - [1.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 10/7 8/5 eq:+1.013 (-0.019)
Player: 77.91% (G:58.45% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 22.09% (G:4.65% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.007..+1.020) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)