XGID=a-AaBBB-C----C-Ac--bAbbbb-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
--
BD

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, January 22, 2022 at 9:04:56 AM UTC, BlueDice wrote:

XGID=a-AaBBB-C----C-Ac--bAbbbb-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
--
BD

**NOTE, O has 1 checker on the bar**
--
BD

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/22/2022 4:04 AM, BlueDice wrote:

XGID=a-AaBBB-C----C-Ac--bAbbbb-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
--

X is behind in the pip count so that typically means playing
boldly, but here O has a five-point board. My first inclination
is to play safe with 6/5 6/2, although that is not totally safe
either, since it gives O 64 43 41 11 to hit back. Still, the
alternatives leave even more shots, and I think that's too many.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, January 22, 2022 at 9:04:56 AM UTC, BlueDice wrote:

XGID=a-AaBBB-C----C-Ac--bAbbbb-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
--
BD

Rollout
-----------

My guess is that the potential to anchor on the 20 point makes the aggressive 8/3* good value.
With the quieter plays O will hit our blot on 20 with impunity since anchoring there would hugely increase X's GWC.
See the variant where I removed the slot on the 20 point.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.090
Player: 50.11% (G:14.30% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 49.89% (G:35.03% B:2.13%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.100..-0.080) - [99.8%]
Duration: 4 minutes 15 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 2/1 eq:-0.112 (-0.022)
Player: 48.54% (G:11.37% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 51.46% (G:31.43% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.123..-0.102) - [0.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/2 eq:-0.377 (-0.287)
Player: 41.68% (G:7.45% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 58.32% (G:25.60% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.393..-0.360) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant
-----------
XGID=a-AaBBB-C----C-Bc--b-bbbb-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O |
| X X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. XG Roller++ 13/12 8/4 eq:+0.185
Player: 56.86% (G:12.13% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 43.14% (G:22.17% B:0.28%)

2. XG Roller++ 8/4 2/1 eq:+0.168 (-0.018)
Player: 57.00% (G:11.51% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 43.00% (G:17.67% B:0.15%)

3. XG Roller++ 13/8 eq:+0.126 (-0.059)
Player: 56.65% (G:10.97% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 43.35% (G:19.22% B:0.13%)

4. XG Roller++ 15/14 15/11 eq:+0.118 (-0.068)
Player: 55.36% (G:10.14% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 44.64% (G:23.72% B:0.49%)

5. XG Roller++ 6/5 6/2 eq:+0.085 (-0.101)
Player: 52.22% (G:7.48% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 47.78% (G:8.73% B:0.09%)

6. XG Roller++ 8/3* eq:-0.072 (-0.257)
Player: 52.34% (G:13.48% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 47.66% (G:31.32% B:0.23%)
--
BD

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/24/2022 8:06 AM, BlueDice wrote:

My guess is that the potential to anchor on the 20 point makes the aggressive 8/3* good value.
With the quieter plays O will hit our blot on 20 with impunity since anchoring there would hugely increase X's GWC.
See the variant where I removed the slot on the 20 point.

Nice problem! But I doubt that anchoring on the 20pt is the main consideration. If X had rolled 32 then he certainly would have
run the back checker. See also the variant below. X isn't trying
to anchor; he's trying to get his checkers around the board safely
and avoid getting hit.

XGID=a-AaBBB-C----C-Ac--bbAbbb-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 108 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.109
Player: 49.33% (G:14.29% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 50.67% (G:35.54% B:2.31%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.118..-0.100) - [77.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17 2/1 eq:-0.115 (-0.006)
Player: 48.87% (G:9.91% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 51.13% (G:30.23% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.127..-0.103) - [22.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)