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  • Double 4's should be better than this

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 30 23:16:39 2021
    XGID=-a---BE-CAa-bB--A-bb-bAcb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Jan 1 16:23:36 2022
    On Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 11:16:41 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---BE-CAa-bB--A-bb-bAcb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow

    A play commonly seen enough in some early game positions.

    Stick

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jan 1 22:13:32 2022
    XGID=-a---BE-CAa-bB--A-bb-bAcb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    Unfortunately I can't seem to find it, but there was an interesting
    thread on BGOnline years ago about switching points from the 5pt to
    the 1pt or 2pt. Since we're trained to value the 5pt much more
    highly than the 1pt or 2pt, such plays can be hard to see. Here,
    though, it's pretty clear we need a tempo hit since we have too
    many vulnerable blots and O has the stronger board. The question
    is whether to hit loose on the 1pt or switch points. I opted to
    hit loose, but minimizing return shots is very important here.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/2(2) 5/1*(2) eq:-0.034
    Player: 47.32% (G:18.60% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 52.68% (G:23.46% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.043..-0.025) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/1* 6/2(2) eq:-0.129 (-0.096)
    Player: 45.80% (G:17.04% B:0.57%)
    Opponent: 54.20% (G:26.19% B:0.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.141..-0.117) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 9/1* 8/4(2) eq:-0.163 (-0.129)
    Player: 44.92% (G:18.17% B:0.79%)
    Opponent: 55.08% (G:29.70% B:1.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.175..-0.151) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 5/1*(2) eq:-0.191 (-0.158)
    Player: 44.15% (G:17.95% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 55.85% (G:26.31% B:1.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.204..-0.179) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)